Pacific Classic (G1) Picks

Pace: The fact Knightsbridge is running means the pace will be fast. He is simply the speed of the speed, but drawing outside means he must cross and clear the field prior to going into the first turn. However, he has the entire stretch run to do so. Therefore, the question is whether it will be contested. I believe Knightsbridge will face enough pressure and tactics from the other runners to ensure an honest pace going the 1 ¼ mile distance. Directly to his inside he has a pair of fast early horses in the form of 2024 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Full Serrano and Saffie Joseph Jr.’s entry Navajo Warrior who wired graded stakes fields the last two times out. Aside from them, Japanese invader Finger who is the son of Gun Runner out of the Grade 3 winning sprint mare Estilo Talentoso is a speedball who likes to go straight to the front in his races and is likely to be fresh having last run in June. Finally, you have Saffie Joseph Jr.’s other horse, Forged Steel, who wired the field in the Gold Cup (G2) at Santa Anita two starts back. With that many horses who prefer to sit forward trips, the pace will be honest and should allow for a horse to come from off the pace if they are good enough to close at the 1 ¼ mile distance.

Analysis: I spent a lot of time looking at this race and trying to visualize how it will be run. It’s possible Knightsbridge simply gets up front and wires the field with his superior early speed in a manner like how he won last time out. However, for as much respect as I have for the Bill Mott trainee, I kept coming back to #7 Hit Show (6-1) the most likely alternative to the favorite. Let’s get some of the negatives out of the way first. Trainer Brad Cox has not had much success shipping horses to California over the last five years when you erased his Breeders’ Cup entries. He is 1-13 during that time between Del Mar and Santa Anita. The good news is that Hit Show is a proven shipper having won the 2025 Dubai World Cup (G1) in addition to scoring victories at six other tracks throughout the United States. The six-year-old son of Candy Ride is bred to go long and has a career-defining victory going 1 ¼ miles in Dubai last year. He is a grinder as he will not overwhelm you with a massive late surge as much as he simply keeps coming as the race wears on. I believe the pace will be strong enough that the frontrunners will soften up Knightsbridge enough for Hit Show to get by him late in the stretch. Another potential drawback for Hit Show is that his Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) have never been overwhelming as his career-best is a 104 which is well below the 122 Knightsbridge scored last time out. However, if you take that number away from the favorite, yes, he has enough 112 in a previous race, but most of his figures fall in the 102-105 range, which would give Hit Show a real chance on his best day. Additionally, Hit Show is making his third start back from the overseas trip to Dubai this year and has every opportunity to move forward from his last effort in the Suburban (G2) where he was the only horse to make up ground in a race that was over going into the first turn as Phileas Fogg grabbed and easy lead and cruised. Despite losing by 10 lengths, he bested Antiquarian who came back to run a solid third in the Whitney (G1) while moving forward six BSF. He also beat Tiztastic who finished fifth in the Whitney (G1) but still managed to improve his BSF by four points. Other runners coming out of the Suburban (G2) included Stars and Stripes as well as his stablemate Parchment Party who came back to finish 1-2 in the Birdstone Stakes next time out by only a nose apart. Plus, Yo Daddy came back to narrowly lose an expensive optional claiming race while improving his BSF. All of this suggests that race was productive and horses have improved their efforts in their next start. I believe Hit Show will sit a mid-pack trip and start making a move on the far turn and then grind away down the stretch to catch the flashy favorite.

The big, bad wolf in the field is #11 Knightsbridge (5-2) who at times looked like a generational talent and at times looked very beatable for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The son of Nyquist took a long time to stay healthy as he had very abbreviated two-year-old and three-year-old seasons in 2023 and 2024. Mott finally got him consistently healthy toward the end of 2025, and he reeled off four straight impressive victories including three against graded stakes company at Gulfstream Park during the Championship Meet. However, he disappointed as the favorite in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) on Kentucky Derby Day and followed that up with a runner-up finish against Nysos in the Met Mile (G1). To that point, he had only ever raced around one turn, which made sense given his pedigree and being the half-sibling to Speaker’s Corner who became a Grade 1 sprint winner. However, Mott pivoted his strategy after the Met Mile (G1) and opened the door to Knightsbridge going two turns. He found a soft spot, the Monmouth Cup (G3), for the first test and when nobody decided to contest the early pace, it was over as he cruised to a 10+ length victory while galloping home under a tight hold from his jockey that day, Flavien Prat. However, now we stretch out an extra furlong, and he is going to face other early speed challenges. In some ways, Knightsbridge strikes me as a horse who is supremely talented but has dressed up form. His graded stakes victories at Gulfstream Park did not come over very stiff competition and the second he faces adversity or does not get his preferred trip; he packs it in a bit. He is a four-time Grade 3 winner and now he is the favorite in one of the premiere Grade 1 races for older horses while going a new distance against tougher competition. Maybe jockey Junior Alvarado puts him on the lead and he never stops, but at what projects to be a short price, I am willing to try to beat him as a win candidate.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has a pair of runners entered and I prefer his higher priced option as #9 Navajo Warrior (8-1) is coming off consecutive graded stakes victories while posting a 101 and 106 BSF. Another son of Candy Ride is out of a Storm Cat mare who also foaled the horse Current who was a graded stakes turf marathoner, so distance should be his friend. Additionally, the horse is familiar with Del Mar as he started his career in California for Bob Baffert and Tim Yakteen before moving to Joseph Jr.’s barn slowly stepped up in competition across a variety of allowance and optional claiming races. Eventually, he switched off Lasix to face graded stakes company and seemed to improve as he stretched out to 1 3/16 miles in the Pimlico Special (G3) and then 1 1/8 miles last time out in the Cornhusker (G3). The latter race has already produced two next out winners in the form of San Siro and Spenard, which is encouraging to see coming into his first Grade 1 attempt. The horse has outstanding early speed and has going gate-to-wire the last two times out but has shown the ability to come from off the pace during some of his previous races against lesser company. Whether he can do that against this group is to be determined, but it is at least encouraging to know he is not the type of give up should he not get to the front, which gives jockey Micah Husbands some options early in the race. Remember, Joseph Jr. and Husbands teamed up to win the Clement Hersch (G1) just a few weeks ago at Del Mar and could try to pull the upset again.

My shot in the dark in this race is #6 Original Sin (15-1) for trainer Brendan Walsh with top California jockey Juan Hernandez on the mount. The Calumet owned and bred son of Curlin does not appear to fit in this race, which is exactly why I believe he is live. Brendan Walsh and Calumet are not in the business of spotting their horses over their heads while shipping them halfway across the country. Typically, Kentucky breeders prefer to see their horses win in their own backyard at Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Downs, or Ellis Park. This horse could have easily been pointed to a stakes race in Kentucky after his disappointing effort in the Suburban (G2) last time out. That said, he is a horse that I was high on prior to his latest effort as he beat a nice field, which included Hit Show two back in the Blame (G3), which had been his first run against graded stakes company. Walsh stretched him out to 1 ¼ miles for the Suburban (G2) and the fact he is wheeling this horse back at 1 ¼ miles AGAIN while stepping UP in class would seem to indicate he believes the horse has a big race in him. Otherwise, trainers like Walsh would gladly find a softer spot and cut the horse back a bit to nine furlongs or a mile. In terms of pedigree, Original Sin is sired by Curlin, which is a fantastic distance influence, but his mare’s most productive foal to date is Pingxiang who was a 17-time sprint winner in Japan. On the track, the horse should sit a similar trip to Hit Show getting away mid-pack and making a move on the far turn. He draws well toward the middle of the field and should get a nice spot going into the first turn. Whether is good enough is a massive question, but that’s why you are getting long odds. For a sharp trainer to send a horse like this to a Grade 1 tells me there is something he is seeing in the morning that might not be readily seen in the past performances.