OP Track Stats Week Two
OAKLAWN PARK TRACK STATS
Throughout the meet at Oaklawn Park, Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets will provide updated weekly track trends. Get the latest stats updated through 12/15/24.
WHAT ARE TRACK TRENDS?
Track trends provide two levels of data for bettors and handicappers. First, it analyzes how frequently favorites are winning different levels of races as well as looking at how favorites perform on different surfaces and distances. Second, they analyze how different running styles (leaders, trackers, closers) perform on different surfaces and distances to have the ideal winning trip.
Use the data below to help identify helpful trends for handicapping and betting through the first week of the meet at Oaklawn Park. Obviously, as the number of races increases, so will the reliability of the statistical trends we see throughout the meet.
Post Time Favorite Analysis
Overall, post time favorites are winning at a 24.5% rate during the Oaklawn Park meet. Looking beyond just favorites, 57.1% of winners have been 4/1 or lower at post time. Meanwhile, 16.3% of winners have been 10/1 or higher come post time.
From a betting standpoint, doing a flat $2 win bet on every post time favorite would return $1.29 (-35.5% ROI) through the meet. Meanwhile, here are how favorites performed at different odds.
| Post Time Favorite Odds | Count | Win % | Top 3 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below even money | 5 | 20.0% | 100% |
| 1/1 to 9/5 | 26 | 30.8% | 76.9% |
| 2/1 to 3/1 | 18 | 16.7% | 55.6% |
| Higher than 3/1 | 0 | N/A | N/A |
Average Field Size – 8.73
Races by Level
- Maiden Special Weight race favorites – 14.3%
- Maiden Claiming race favorites – 20.0%
- Claiming race favorites – 35.7%
- Optional Claiming race favorites – 40.0%
- Allowance race favorites – 10.0%
- Stakes race favorites – 33.3%
Races by Surface and Distance
- Dirt sprint favorites – 25.0%
- Dirt route favorites – 23.5%
Winning Trips Analysis
Dirt Sprint Winners (n=32)
- 34.4% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 43.7% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 21.9% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.
Dirt Route Winners (n=17)
- 5.8% have been leading at the ½ mile mark.
- 47.1% have been tracking 3 lengths or less from lead at ½ mile mark.
- 47.1% have come from more than 3 lengths back at ½ mile mark.
Shipper Analysis
The meet at Oaklawn Park attracts horses from the southeast and Midwest, which can often lead to some big prices early in the meet as horses coming in from smaller regional tracks like Remington Park can surprise the competition coming in from Churchill Downs. Additionally, trainers like Brad Cox, Steve Asmussen, and others will make Oaklawn their base of operations in the winter for their top dirt horses. Track Stats will also be providing analysis of where winners during the Oaklawn Park meet ran their last race to better inform bettors of any shipping trends that might exist.
| Track of Previous Race | # of Wins |
|---|---|
| Churchill Downs | 16 |
| Horseshoe Indianapolis | 6 |
| Oaklawn Park | 6 |
| Del Mar | 4 |
| Hawthorne | 3 |
| Remington Park | 2 |
| Keeneland | 2 |
| Delta Downs | 2 |
| Evangeline Downs | 1 |
| Santa Anita | 1 |
| Belmont at Aqueduct | 1 |
| Canterbury | 1 |
| Debut | 1 |
| Ellis Park | 1 |
| Woodbine | 1 |
| Zia Park | 1 |
Seeing Churchill Downs shippers is not surprising due to the number of horses being brought in from that track by high profile trainers. However, the number that is slightly surprising is that several horses who have not run since the spring at Oaklawn Park have come off the bench to run well. Certain trainers know how to get their horses ready for the track and it also reinforces the notion that some horses take to the track better than others. Also, Horseshoe Indianapolis shippers continue to acquit themselves well at tracks this winter as they have been highly effective at Turfway Park as well. As we get more races, it will be worth monitoring whether some of these trends continue or reverse themselves.