Oklahoma Derby Picks

Analysis: Sunday night is one of Remington Park’s feature days as it concludes its 10-race card with the Oklahoma Derby (G3). It is a great opportunity for some of these horses to have a chance to get a graded stakes win before stepping up to face older horses later this year and in 2026. News came out on Thursday that morning line favorite, #8 Coal Battle (2/1) will scratch per trainer Lonnie Briley who said the horse is not ready to run after getting some time off.

Even prior to the news of the scratch, I loved #4 Bracket Buster (4/1) for trainer Victoria Oliver. The runner-up in the Travers (G1) earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) despite finishing 10 lengths behind winner Sovereignty. The good news is that the race has already produced solid returns as third-place finisher, Magnitude, who Bracket Buster bested by nearly 11 lengths came back to run a solid second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) while earning a 102 BSF. Prior to Bracket Buster’s big effort in the Travers (G1), the son of Vekoma was pointed in the right direction as he won the Pegasus Stakes in style by seven widening lengths and then ran fourth in the Haskell (G1) behind the trio of Journalism, Gosger, and Goal Oriented. Yes, the 102 BSF in the Travers (G1) was a big jump, but this is a horse that appeared to be rounding into solid form as the year progressed. Additionally, Oliver has had this horse training well leading up to Sunday’s race as evidenced by the 46.4 second four-furlong workout at Keeneland on September 13. It is also telling that jockey Luis Saez is flying into Remington Park for Sunday night to retain that mount, which shows you how high he is on the horse’s chance of winning.

Another high-profile jockey coming in for the evening is Jose Ortiz who is riding #2 Iron Dome (9/2). The New York-bred son of Into Mischief was a $500,000 purchase as a yearling in the Keeneland September Sales. While his pedigree, sales price, and sales location spoke to his ability to beat open company, he ultimately did not break his maiden until he made the move to New York to face his fellow NY-breds. He stretched out to nine furlongs in July at Saratoga and has not lost since he broke his maiden, won a first-level allowance, and smoked the field in the Albany Stakes. He won those three races by a combined 28 ¼ lengths while moving forward on BSF in each start from 89 to 91 to 93 last time out. He has good early speed but can rate just off the leader. The fact he excelled in going Sunday’s distance and has shown the ability to improve is promising as is the fact the runner up in the Albany Stakes, Hit the Post, came back to win a stakes race at Finger Lakes next time out by over six lengths while backing up his BSF. He might be the “other Asmussen” based on the morning line price, but I much prefer him over his stablemate.

A local runner, #1 Mister Omaha (8/1), presents good value and familiarity with the track as he is 3-5 winning at Remington Park, which includes a pair of juvenile stakes races. While he has only won once in his last four efforts, he has been remarkably consistent during that stretch being assigned BSF of 86, 85, 84, and 86 in those races. He was a distant third in the Iowa Derby two back on the day when Magnitude freaked at Prairie Meadows. Meanwhile, last time out she finished a close fourth in the Super Derby at Louisiana Downs. Much like Iron Dome, the son of Omaha Beach has good early speed and should be able to sit a pocket trip while saving ground from the inside rail with his regular rider Luis Quinonez aboard. I might not see him winning, but trainer Joe Offolter has done a great job getting this horse race for Sunday with a local bullet work of 47.2 seconds going four furlongs on September 21.

Finally, there is the often misplaced #5 Publisher (7/2) for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is still a maiden despite having run his last five races against graded stakes competition. During that stretch, the best he achieved was a runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) that features a monumental pace meltdown that led some people to believe he and Sandman were “live” in the Kentucky Derby (G1). That turned out to be false. After a distant 14th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Asmussen gave the horse a little time off and he came back in the Indiana Derby (G3) where he was beaten by Tip Top Thomas, Coal Battle, and Brother Kenny. The last four times out, he has attracted jockeys Flavien Prat, Irad Ortiz Jr., and Mike Smith. On Sunday, Asmussen’s son, Erik, will hop back aboard. The good news is that the younger Asmussen has experience riding the horse, but the horse never did much for him in those spots. Publisher lacks good early speed and will be coming from off the pace over a track that favors early speed. He is the first of the top contenders I would eliminate from my tickets, and I see another underneath finish from a horse that has yet to win a single race.