Ohio Derby (G3) Picks

Pace Scenario

The pace dynamics should be relatively straightforward as #8 Desert Gate (5-2) is the speed of the speed. Additionally, breaking further outside will give his jockey, Flavien Prat, more reason to use that early speed to cross over the field going into the first turn. I suspect #3 Chip Honcho (3-1) will be a close second and could vie for early supremacy should he break well, but the fact that he has not gotten to the front the last two times out makes me question whether he wants to do that, though I believe that is his best chance to win. From there, a horse like #2 Robusta (20-1) should get a decent position behind the leaders, and even a horse like #10 Albus (10-1) could find himself forward when judged against the other early speed in this field. I doubt you end up with a highly contested pace over a track that can hold up early speed, which puts the closers in a difficult spot.

Analysis

I have been a fan of #8 Desert Gate (5-2) since his effort in the Best Pal (G3) last year at Del Mar, in which he throttled a field that included eventual Kentucky Derby (G1) starter Pavlovian. The son of Omaha Beach has a huge pedigree as he is out of the Curlin mare Theogony, who is a dirt route stakes winner going 1 ½ miles. Distance should be his friend. However, he was unable to capitalize on that victory in the Best Pal (G3), finishing second in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharaoh (G1) as a juvenile. He missed the Breeders’ Cup and came back as a three-year-old in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), where he ran a disappointing fourth as the 6/5 favorite. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert took him off the Kentucky Derby Trail and shipped him to Oaklawn for the Hot Springs Stakes, where he decimated a depleted four-horse field and won by over nine lengths. He bested a decent horse in the form of Soldier N Diplomat, though it is fair to question the competition. Baffert shipped him to Texas for his next start, where he won the Texas Derby in nearly gate-to-wire fashion with Irad Ortiz Jr. up on the mount. He received Lasix for that effort but had never run with it before. He has been curiously campaigned, as he has now landed at Thistledown JACK, where Baffert has not had a single starter in the last five years. In some ways, he is being campaigned as a second-tier Baffert horse, but when compared to his other three-year-old males, he is likely the second-best in training behind Crude Velocity. Perhaps none of that is relevant for Saturday, where I believe he is the clear speed of the speed going nine furlongs over a track that has carried the likes of Mo Plex and Batten Down in recent years. I believe jockey Flavien Prat takes him straight to the front and never looks back. What comes next, should he win, will be an interesting conversation, as I could see a race like the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) in his future.

The Wood Memorial (G2) was nearly unanimously mocked as being “slow” immediately after it was run, but has come back as a productive race. Fifth-place finisher Napoleon Solo came back to win the Preakness (G1) while seventh-place finisher Iron Honor was the runner-up in that race. Meanwhile, third-place finisher Ocelli backed up his effort with an astounding third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) while eighth-place finisher Talk to Me Jimmy came back to run second in the Peter Pan (G3). Nearly every horse that ran back from that race moved forward in their speed figures, which brings us to the winner of the Wood Memorial (G2), #10 Albus (10-1), for trainer Riley Mott. Albus came from mid-pack that day at Aqueduct to be the upset winner and earn his spot in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He looked good training down at Churchill Downs leading up to the big race, but he got the worst of the early jostling on the inside in the first 100 yards of the race. Many made a big deal about the trip Renegade had in the Kentucky Derby, but Albus got far worse as he was slammed between horses and pinched back to second-to-last. While you certainly did want to be coming from off-the-pace in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1), the early trouble took Albus out of his game, and he never was able to mount a serious bid. Mott decided to skip the rest of the Triple Crown and focus on getting his son of Yaupon ready for the summer Derby circuit. His workouts have not been overwhelming, but the fact that he appears to be in maintenance mode is promising and could suggest that the horse is exactly where Mott wants him to be. From a pedigree standpoint, the nine furlongs should not be an issue, and he already won going that distance in the Wood Memorial. While Yaupon is undoubtedly a sprint influence, Albus’s dam, Adream, produced Grade 3 dirt route winner Song of Spring, whose four career victories all came between eight and nine furlongs. He should sit an ideal trip on Saturday, given the lack of mid-pack horses in the race and his post position, as Jaime Torres is likely to use some of his initial speed to secure a tracking trip sitting fourth or fifth behind the early leaders. He might be more of a grinder, but he will be in a good position to challenge the leaders at the top of the stretch should they tire.

I am a fan of #3 Chip Honcho (3-1) in this spot. I believe the Steve Asmussen trainee might be best at a mile; this is the right sort of race for him to win going longer, as he measures up well against this group in a race with minimal speed. The only issue is that I do not believe he is faster than Desert Gate, which puts him in a spot where he is likely to be sitting second to his outside or trailing a length or two behind him, which feels more likely. He appears to be a “need the lead” type, as he has rarely shown the capacity to pass other horses, as his best performance to date was the close second in the Risen Star (G2), where he just got nabbed by Paladin at the wire while being 5 ½ lengths ahead of eventual Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Golden Tempo. Perhaps jockey Jose Ortiz will make getting to the lead an imperative in this race, but the fact that he failed to get to the front in his last two races makes me believe it is less about desire and more about lacking the natural speed to easily get to the front against a horse like Desert Gate. Should he sit second, it might very well inherit the lead as Desert Gate is stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time, in which case, Chip Honcho becomes even more dangerous as he is a tough customer up front who will not relinquish any lead easily. I’m modestly against him as a win candidate, but believe he will run a very good race on Saturday.

I’m against #5 Ocelli (9-2) due to the race shape and track dynamics, and I’m not enthralled with #4 Trendsetter (5-1) at his morning line price as he failed to back up his 32/1 upset win in the Lexington (G3) in his next start. Therefore, I landed on #7 Bull by the Horns (12-1) as another longshot play underneath. The son of Essential Quality is out of a Blame mare and should want to run for days based upon that pedigree. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. got him a stakes victory in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park on the all-weather surface back in March before shifting back to the dirt when he took a shot in the Preakness (G1). While he was nowhere near good enough that day, his effort was not that bad as he broke dead last and had to travel seven wide around the far turn while making a run to finish a distant sixth in a 14-horse field. His career-best 82 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) will have to substantially improve should he want to hit the board on Saturday. However, Joseph Jr. is adding the blinkers to a horse that has never shown good early speed. While traditionally adding blinkers is not a plus move for the trainer, over the last five years, he has been winning at a 22% clip when making that equipment change in three-year-old dirt route races. Few horses in this field have enough speed to even be considered “trackers” so it’s possible the equipment change gets him sitting roughly the same trip I envision for Albus, in which case he could be a serious threat given his pedigree and closing ability.