Ohio Derby Picks

Overview: A competitive field descends upon Thistledown on Saturday for another renewal of the Ohio Derby (G3). Expect two horses to dominate the early pace as #6 Clever Again (9/5) and #10 Mo Plex (6/1) will have outstanding early speed. The last we saw Clever Again, he got the worst of the thrilling stretch run involving Journalism in the Preakness (G1) while Mo Plex won the Bayshore Stakes last time out but is doing two turns for the first time. There are some legitimate distance questions for Mo Plex who is 0-3 going a mile while Clever Again has a pedigree to support the nine-furlong race. Last year we saw Batten Down wire the field as lone speed in this race, but if it is contested, then it opens things up for a horse coming from off the pace, which both #4 McAfee (3/1) and #2 Chunk of Gold (7/2) provide. Whoever ends up winning might set themselves up for a nice summer that includes some Grade 1 races like the Travers (G1), Haskell (G1), or Pennsylvania Derby (G1).

#4 McAfee (3/1) – The son of Cloud Computing might not have much pedigree up top, but underneath he is the half-sibling to reigning Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna, so he certainly has the class to get the job done here. He came up just short last time out in the Peter Pan (G3) going Saturday’s distance but was outfinished by Hill Road who went on to run in the Belmont Stakes (G1). The Rick Dutrow Jr. trainee broke his maiden in debut and nearly won second time out but then went to the bench for over three months, during which time he was a vet scratch. He eventually ran in the Gotham (G3) where he finished fifth and then had another fifth-place performance in the Wood Memorial (G2). While his finishing placement was never that impressive, he kept getting faster each time out and culminated with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in the Peter Pan (G3). The other thing that happened in that race was Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez took over and had him much closer to the pace, so he did not have as much work to do coming home as he had in previous starts. The good news is that Velazquez is back aboard on Saturday and should have McAfee positioned just behind the three early speed horses: Clever Again, Mo Plex, and Master Controller. Therefore, he will get first run on the leaders who could be facing a contested pace as three of them likely want to be forward. I think nine furlongs is McAfee’s max distance and the recent form of runners coming back from New York stakes races has not been great, but he has never taken a step back in his career and with a tracking trip under a Hall of Fame jockey, he feels like an obvious alternative to the favorite.

#6 Clever Again (9/5) – If you told me Clever Again was clear by a length and a half going into the first turn then I would tell you to put your money on him as I think he is dangerous if he can get an uncontested lead and moderate fractions. However, the Steve Asmussen trainee is coming off a rough go of thing at Pimlico in the Preakness (G1) when he was on the receiving end of the bumping and jostling at the top of the stretch between him, Journalism, and Goal Oriented. To be clear, Clever Again was already backing up in that race after going 46.3 seconds to the half mile but was slammed against the rail when Journalism bulldozed his way through a small opening. However, once he hit the rail, jockey Jose Ortiz eased him up and that trotted home. Luckily, the son of American Pharaoh had only minor scrapes and is back in action quickly, but I do wonder if that race took anything out of him or if he has any lingering mental effects if he finds himself in a tight spot on the rail. If he runs back to the form he showed in the Hot Springs Stakes at Oaklawn Park, he wins for fun, but that was at a mile and while his pedigree suggests he should want to run all day, it is fair to question whether he can get over a mile until he does it. The other two main early speed horses in the race have drawn to his outside, so it feels likely that he will be pressed for some legitimate fractions by either Mo Plex or Master Controller. In that case, I will play against him as a top pick, but I will have him sprinkled in some of my multi-race wagers so I am not too exposed in case he is able to get the distance and trip necessary in this spot as we saw Batten Down win this race in gate-to-wire fashion last year.

#2 Chunk of Gold (7/2) – I love this horse. Really, how could you not? He was a $2,500 purchase and sired by Preservationist who the industry thought so much of that they shipped him over to Korea to stud. However, now Preservationist has an older horse like Antiquarian who looks to be among the top 10 four-year-old male dirt horses and a Kentucky Derby (G1) runner in Chunk of Gold. The Ethan West trainee who is affectionately referred to as “Chunk” is coming off a ninth-place effort in the Kentucky Derby (G1), which followed up a pair of runner-up efforts in the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). Given the company he has kept, expect him to get bet since people will see he is the only horse who ran in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the only horse to make an impression during the Derby prep season as well. However, he is a closer in a race that is typically dominated by speed or those who track the pace. You rarely see horses make a big run from the back in a stakes race at Thistledown, so while Chunk has been training magnificently the last few weeks including a pair of bullet 47 second four-furlong workouts in May and June, he still feels like a horse that will be running against the race flow and potential track bias. He is too classy not to include in your vertical wagers, but he feels like a hard horse to support as a top pick, especially at what could be a lower price than his morning line. There is a point at which he becomes a valuable play and for me it is 6/1. If for some reason he floats up, then I would not hesitate to pull the trigger on a modest win bet, but he needs to be the right price relative to his chances of winning.

#9 Master Controller (20/1) – Among the favorites, the horse I am most against is Mo Plex who is stretching out to two turns for the first time and is 0-3 when running a one-turn mile. I know his sire, Complexity, has shown some encouraging progeny stats for his dirt route runners (23% winning), but Mo Plex will be trying a new distance for the first time and seems best at six or seven furlongs. As a result, I think a horse like Master Controller could sit the same type of trip but has a better chance at providing value either as an upset or underneath in vertical wagers. The son of Tapiture did not show much as a juvenile but came back from a nearly seven-month layoff and took the competition gate-to-wire to break his maiden at Churchill Downs. Yes, it was a $100,000 maiden claiming race going 6 ½ furlongs in which he received Lasix, but it also looked like he matured during his time off. He has come out of that race in great form for trainer Brittany Vanden Berg as he fired off a 47.2 second four-furlong workout on June 14 at the Churchill Downs Training. The fact he showed enough speed to get to the front in a sprint race does not bode well for Clever Again who will be hounded up front. Master Controller should be able to get the distance, and it was encouraging to see the horse he beat last time out came back to win by six lengths in his next start while backing up the Beyer Speed Figure he earned previously. If Master Controller can sit the right type of trip and move forward in his second start off the bench, he has a chance to provide great value in vertical exotics.