Oaklawn Handicap (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

There is virtually no speed in this six-horse field, which creates a potential opportunity for #1 White Abarrio (7-2). The seven-year-old son of Race Day has had his share of ups and downs in his career, but trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has him going in the right direction after finishing second in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January. While he might be third billing in the race, he is a Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner and a horse that can deliver huge efforts when he is right. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard and should take the initiative from the inside rail. White Abarrio is not a “need the lead” type, but he has won in that fashion in the past, so being up front should not be an issue. Journalism and Sovereignty are both likely to be sitting relatively close to the pace, with Journalism trying to secure the most forward position on the hip of White Abarrio.

Analysis

As the legendary professional wrestler Ric Flair once famously proclaimed, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man.” In horse racing, #3 Sovereignty (4-5) is “the man.” Until someone beats him, it is hard to pick against him, even with this being his first race in nearly eight months. The son of Into Mischief for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott decimated the competition as a three-year-old, winning the Fountain of Youth (G2), Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1), Jim Dandy (G2), and Travers (G1). He saved his best performance for last as he rolled by 10 lengths to demolish the field in the Travers (G1), which included Magnitude, who has come back to win the Clark (G2), Razorback (G3), and recently bested Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup (G1). He is a rare horse who has shown the ability to change running styles during his campaign, as he started off as a closer and started showing significantly better early speed in the Belmont Stakes (G1), where he was sitting within two lengths of the early pacesetters. His ability to sit closer to the pace makes it challenging for his competitors, who often need a cushion of five or six lengths if they hope to hold off his relentless late kick turning for home. The one question is whether Sovereignty comes back at four-years-old in the same form he displayed last year. Remember, he was scratched from the Breeders’ Cup with a fever and took some time to work back from that illness, but his most recent workout appears to show the old Sovereignty, and trainer Bill Mott is mindful of how to handle special horses as he did with Cigar during his 19-race winning streak. I expect jockey Junior Alvarado to have Sovereignty within a length or two of Journalism during most of the race, and every time that has been the case before, Sovereignty has had no issues going by his rival.

#5 Journalism (5-2) is a special horse in his own right and one that is a throwback, having campaigned across the country during his three-year-old season for trainer Michael McCarthy. He is the only horse to compete in all three legs of the Triple Crown and won the Preakness (G1) with a herculean effort after squeezing through a tight spot on the rail. He was never good enough to seriously threaten Sovereignty, and he struck the lead in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) but was easily overtaken in the stretch. One could argue that those races were not at his best distance as he was going ten furlongs, and while the son of Curlin should have the pedigree to handle the distance, he does seem most effective at Saturday’s distance of nine furlongs. When rewatching the Pacific Classic (G1) from last year, where he got a criminally bad trip, you can see him making a run at Fierceness at the top of the stretch, but flattened out the last furlong. Shortening up might be his best way to beat Sovereignty, and going after him in the first race off the bench is the other way he could win. He is currently down 0-2 to his rival, and it’s hard to call it a rivalry when one horse has yet to beat the other one. However, he could turn the tables on Saturday as he is coming off a shorter layoff, though he has registered the same number of official workouts (seven) leading up to his 2026 debut. He always looks good and has better speed than he’s been able to show at times. I know trainer Michael McCarthy has wanted to lay close to the pace in multiple races last year and never quite got the desired trip. Look for jockey Jose Ortiz to sit just off the hip of White Abarrio and try to establish a three or four-length advantage over Sovereignty and get the jump turning for home in a race without significant pace.

While the race has been billed as a showdown between Sovereignty and Journalism, #1 White Abarrio (7-2) might have something to say about this. One of the coolest horses in training has gotten back into form after a drama-filled Breeders’ Cup, where he was a last-second scratch in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), which has led to a lawsuit brought by his connections. Legal filings aside, trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has done a remarkable job managing the seven-year-old son of Race Day, who has now won over $7 million on track and possesses an impressive resume. His biggest advantage on Saturday will be his speed. He has not gone gate-to-wire since last year’s victory in the Ghostzapper (G3) as he often tracks the pace and gets first run at the leader, but with the dearth of speed signed on for Saturday and drawing the inside rail, look for jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to be aggressive out of the gate and put him on the lead. There are few horses that want to press a fast pace, so Ortiz Jr. should be able to set his own fractions and let White Abarrio get comfortable up front. Additionally, unlike Sovereignty and Journalism, White Abarrio already has a start under his belt in the 2026 Pegasus World Cup (G1) and should be in better shape for the nine-furlong affair. From all of the on-site coverage I have seen, White Abarrio looks fantastic and is working out well leading up to the big race, which is a huge piece of the puzzle for him as he falls in and out of form, but once Saffie gets him right, he typically stays that way for a few races, so I think we will see the best version of White Abarrio. Whether he is good enough to hold off his younger rivals remains to be seen, but he will sit the perfect trip.

Finally, I want to give a nod to #6 Publisher (15-1) as the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah took 13 tries to break his maiden but has been on a winning streak ever since. Despite being a maiden last year, he still ran against Sovereignty and Journalism in the Kentucky Derby (G1) as he finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) behind Sandman. He has always raced well at Oaklawn Park, and after finally getting his first win in February, he has reeled off consecutive wins against allowance company, and most recently in the American Pharoah Stakes, which was quite fitting due to his pedigree. The Steve Asmussen trainee likely needs to improve by 10-12 points on his Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) to be competitive with the top three, but he has been trending in the right direction and should be sitting a similar trip to Sovereignty just behind the early pacesetters of White Abarrio and Journalism. I think he is in a different class, but if one of the top three fails to fire, he is a smart horse to include in trifectas.