NY Stallion Series Stakes Picks

Analysis: Sometimes a race can be over right at the start, which was the case for #3 Trail of Gold (4/1) last time out in the Suzie O’Cain Stakes. She broke cleanly but was quickly pinched between horses and steadied back to last going into the first time. Coming from off the pace is nothing new for the daughter of Solomini, but she is typically just a few lengths back as opposed to nearly 10 lengths back. She had an uneventful trip after the start and went a little wide and showed a bit of a burst at the top of the stretch passing a few horses before leveling out. She is not the type to have a long, sustained run, which is why it is critical for her to be closer when she finally makes her move. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. stays up for trainer David Donk and I think with a better trip, this one has every right to move forward. Aggressive placement can sometimes be a key for finding value and trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is moving #6 Hangover Heaven (7/2) from maiden claiming company to a stakes race, which says a lot. Dutrow Jr. has been ice cold this meet (1-26) but his horses have run well for minor awards given they’ve hit the board at nearly a 40% clip despite the low win percentage. The daughter of Mr. Monomoy is out of a Scat Daddy mare and is stretching out from her debut distance of 5 ½ furlongs while keeping up jockey Jose Ortiz. This one feels dangerous and could get ignored on the board. Your morning line favorite, #1 Disco Star (5/2), makes plenty of sense as a logical winner and will be included in my Pick 5 and Pick 6 tickets. Trainer Mark Casse has had a good summer at The Spa and despite Disco Star only winning once, she has consistently been assigned strong Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) that top the field, so if she runs back to her last race in the Suzie O’Cain where she finished second, that might be good enough to get the job done. My concern is that I am not convinced she might be a better sprinter than router as well as the fact she does not have a knack for winning, though many excuses can be made when you see how many off turf races she has run. Finally, trainer Chad Brown’s last out maiden winner #8 Nonna Lynne (4/1) got the job done last time out which was her second race off the bench after a nine-month layoff. She has a big turn of foot but doing it against winners is a question mark as is the pace she will get to run at coming for home. She clearly loves distance and should get a great ride from jockey Manny Franco who has been on her for all three career starts.

How I’m playing it: We have a $158,000+ Pick 6 carryover on Wednesday at Saratoga, so I do not want to get boomed out of the sequence by this race. That said, I want to stay disciplined and stick to my opinions. I like Trail of Gold as a bit of a swing as a top pick, but I am not “against” Disco Star in this race as much as I’m trying to find a logical alternative who could pay a little better up top. I’ll bet Trail of Gold to win, but Disco Star will be on my late sequence tickets. Spreading four deep here seems dicey in terms of keeping an affordable ticket, but there are some potential singles that might allow me to do so. As always, potential scratches could have a big impact on the final decision, but I would get at least two deep with Trail of Gold and Disco Star while using Hangover Heaven and Nonna Lynne as more underneath plays.