Notebook Stakes Picks

Pace: The pace scenario is complicated by the fact that two prominent early pace figures, #4 Phoebeinwonderland (10/1) and #5 Shoot It True (8/1), both of whom are trained by Wesley Ward, are both cross entered in Sunday’s stakes action at Aqueduct. If either (or both) of them runs on Saturday, then expect a strong early pace, but if they both forgo for Sunday, then the pace might be more moderate. What will not be in question is that you can expect #1 Man in Finance (8/5) to go out up front due to the inside rail draw and then #6 Kenny Be (2/1) will be gunning to the front as well. A horse like #2 In the Chase (10/1) won gate-to-wire in debut but has not shown particularly good early speed the last few efforts. Meanwhile, a horse like #3 Soontobeking (9/2) will be hoping for some more speed to draw into the field as he has the best late speed among the group of runners.

#1 Man in Finance (8/5) – Trainer Danny Gargan does not often step his horses into stakes competition for their second start, but they are typically ready when he does. The son of Central Banker dazzled in debut as he stalked the early pace of #6 Kenny Be before pulling away and winning by 7+ lengths. His dam, Nicole’s Miss El, has always produced productive runners including Unique Unions who was stakes placed as a two-year-old. The biggest question is whether jockey Luis Rivera Jr. can get him out of the gate and into a good position from the inside rail. I would imagine he will put aggressive and go to the lead unless Kenny Be is set on getting to the front in which case he has already shown he can rate. Obviously, if the two Wesley Ward runners decide to run in which case things could get a little fast up front. However, his ability to draw off in debut is promising and he has been training nicely since that effort. Thinking that he could be an intriguing NY-bred sprint prospect moving forward.

#3 Soontobeking (9/2) – If the Ward duo draw into the race, then trainer George Weaver’s entry is going to get the setup he needs to be successful. The son of King for a Day has the best late pace speed figures in the field and has shown the ability to close in big spots when he nearly upset Mo Plex in the Funny Side three back. Outside of his one attempt against graded stakes competition, he has never missed the board and has shown great consistency. Last time out, he was simply too far back early and jockey Eric Cancel needs to do a better job at keeping him close. Even if the Ward horses do not enter, it is possible that Man in Finance and Kenny Be duel each other into submission and Soontobeking would be the most likely beneficiary. His Beyer Speed Figures might be a cut below the favorites, but he has the back class and is more battle tested against winners than either of the top two choices. In what could be a short field, he presents good value.

#6 Kenny Be (2/1) – While he was not match for #1 Man in Finance (8/5) in debut, the son of Complexity came back with a huge effort in his second start for trainer David Duggan where he earned a field-best 85 Beyer Speed Figure. Duggan has had a strong start to the Aqueduct meet as he’s won two of his three starts with his lone non-victory being a third-place finish. While he rarely has entered two-year-olds in stakes races, he is a highly respected trainer who will get his horses ready. Kenny Be’s running style is straightforward as he is going to gun it to the front and try and take them gate-to-wire. He was able to shake clear and establish an easy lead last time out, though that seems to be less likely as he faces winners for the first time. Perhaps he has another move forward from his career-best form last time out, but it is also possible he takes a slight step back when facing more front-end pressure.

#7 Three B’s (12/1) – The last-out maiden winner has shown some ability to rate and I love the fact he has experience going longer than Saturday’s six furlongs. The son of Collected trained by Horacio De Paz took a few tries to break his maiden, but those are good experiences to have, and he has progressed in each effort. He could easily move forward again and draws the outside post where jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. should be able to judge the early pace scenario and slot the horse over in the best spot. It feels unlikely he has the necessary speed to get up front with the favorites, but it is possible he gets first crack at the leaders if they go too fast and might not have as much work to do as Soontobeking. De Paz is 19% winning NY-bred races over the last year and 21% winning NY-bred stakes races during that time, which is quite an improvement over his typical 15%-win rate in that stretch. Remember, he won the equivalent of this race for the fillies two years ago with Stonewall Star. He might not be 12/1 if there are some scratches, but this horse presents good value and should be included in your vertical wagers.