Mother Goose Stakes Picks

Analysis: One of the last three-year-old restricted races of the year takes place on Saturday at Aqueduct with the Mother Goose (G2). This is an incredibly competitive field as there is not an obvious standout with several horses who can move forward as many of them stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time. You could make an argument for quite a few in this field, but I settled on a bit of a longshot in the form of #5 Filly Freedom for trainer Chad Brown who is coming off a maiden victory going a mile last time out. The daughter of Constitution should appreciate continuing to stretch out in distance and showed the ability to sit a tracking trip. There is minimal speed in the race with Lemon Zest and So There She Was likely going out up front. Filly Freedom should be able to sit just behind those two with jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons. Her Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs) are not overwhelming, but not many in the field have shown the ability to consistently run higher numbers than hers. She scored so impressively at a mile that I believe going two turns will suit her well and she has lost to some great competition in the maiden ranks as she got beat in debut by Ragtime who has gone on to be a graded stakes winner and is less than a length away from being a perfect 5-5 with three graded stakes wins. Finally, her placement in this race feels very purposeful as Brown already has another filly entered and did not need to rush this one into this spot. The fact he felt she could compete off a maiden score is encouraging, and Santana Jr. is riding well in New York.

#8 So There She Was is already a stakes winner for trainer Doug O’Neill after besting fellow Mother Goose (G2) entrant Lemon Zest last time out in the Remington Park Oaks. Her victory going 1 1/16 miles last time was encouraging as she had just recently started stretching out from sprints. It was encouraging to see her rate off the early speed of Lemon Zest and have more than enough to finish impressively in the stretch. O’Neill is only 1-11 the last five years in graded stakes races in New York, but the one win was this summer at Saratoga with Raging Torrent winning the Met Mile (G1). While he does not win much here, his horses have generally run well as he is 5-11 (45%) hitting the board. Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario hops aboard and he should get her to show plenty of early speed due to her breaking from the #8 post. Rosario is a dangerous speed rider and should try to carve out the same trip the filly got at Remington Park. Her BSFs the last two races should encourage supporters as she ran an 83 and 79, which puts her in the mix for this group, particularly when controlling for the fact she ran those figures off Lasix, which is a big question mark for several in Saturday’s field.

The biggest name in this field is #9 Drexel Hill who is running for the first time since she finished second to Good Cheer in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). The late-running daughter of Bolt d’Oro won over the Aqueduct main track in her final Oaks Prep when she took down the Busher Invitational in March. The long layoff for the Whit Beckman trainee is a big question mark, as is her running style. She is a filly with a big closing kick and, fittingly, she excels in one-turn races and those with a strong early pace. She is unlikely to get anywhere near the fractions she saw in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) when going two turns on Saturday. When you combine that with the long layoff, I am willing to try and beat this filly in my Late Pick 5 sequence as she could leave herself too much work to do at the top of the stretch. No doubt she has class, but the outside post, coming from well off the pace, and replicating her traditional late run off a six-month layoff are all reasons I am wary. However, it would hardly surprise me to see her running late and picking up a piece as she can get the distance and can perform off Lasix.

Finally, #6 Fully Subscribed is the other Chad Brown runner who need to answer some questions on Saturday but has every opportunity to do so with jockey Dylan Davis aboard. The daughter of Tiz the Law out of a Candy Ride mare should be more then capable of handling the distance, which is what we saw last time out when she fell just short of winning at nine furlongs against optional claiming company at Belmont at the Big A. She was assigned an 88 BSF, which put her in contention with this field, but the number did come with Lasix and marks an 11-point jump off her previous best effort. Still, it is not uncommon to see horse’s BSFs improve as they stretch out and her first two turn test was a positive one as she finished second by a neck while tracking behind the pace. She might not have as much early speed as her stablemate Filly Freedom, which is why I downgraded her slightly as she could have more to do around the far turn and top of the stretch. You are likely to get a reasonable price on her and she should sit a useful trip mid-pack, but the key will be not to let the top pair get too much separation and distance from the rest of the field or she could be spinning her wheels coming for home. I also took a long look at #7 Cue the Duckboats for trainer Bill Mott. I like that horse, but she is switching off Lasix for the first time and could be even further back than Fully Subscribed in a race that seems unlikely to fall apart up front.