Monomoy Girl Stakes Picks

Overview: Saturday’s Monomoy Girl Stakes marks the return of Champion Two-Year-Old Filly Immersive for the Brad Cox barn. The daughter of Nyquist was a perfect 4-4 as a juvenile including three straight Grade 1 victories in the Spinaway (G1), Alcibiades (G1), and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). However, she suffered an injury during training early in 2025 and was shelved for a few months as her stablemate, Good Cheer, went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Saturday will be an opportunity to see if Immersive can improve upon her two-year-old form and be a player in the Distaff division moving forward.

#5 Running Away (9/2) – Listen, you do not need to read analysis for me to give out a 4/5 favorite as my top choice. If you are going to beat a filly like Immersive it will be her first time off the bench in over seven months, and I think Running Away might be able to do it. The Wesley Ward trainee and daughter of Gun Runner looked incredibly impressive winning the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct back in January. She did not race again until the Ashland (G1) where she was a disappointing eighth but bounced back with another listed stakes victory last time out at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Recent form aside, this race is as simple as whether you think Running Away can secure an easy lead on the main track. When she does, she wins. When she doesn’t, bet on someone else. A horse like Anna’s Promise has good early speed to her inside but tends to closely track the early pace rather than gun it to the front. I would suspect Immersive could show better early speed than she has in the past due to the long layoff and feeling fresh. Last Friday in the Acorn (G1) we saw a lone speed filly upset a previously undefeated Brad Cox trainee when La Cara easily bested Good Cheer. It would hardly shock me to see Running Away run away with it up front if nobody presses her into strong early fractions. Finally, she gets jockey John Velazquez on the mount who rode her to her maiden victory and is as good as they come at getting horses to relax up front.

#2 Immersive (4/5) – It is exciting for Immersive to be back running after facing a setback over the winter. She was the dominant two-year-old filly last year winning three Grade 1 races and being named Champion Two-Year-Old Filly. The fact trainer Brad Cox was able to roll out a horse like Good Cheer who was a perfect 7-7 to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) just speaks to the embarrassment of riches in his barn. I have always loved Immersive’s pedigree as she is sired by Nyquist out of a Bernardini mare which provides her with a great combination of speed and stamina. On the track, she has an off-the-pace running style like her stablemate Good Cheer, though she could flash more early speed Saturday as horses coming back from long layoffs generally are keyed up for their return. Cox has had her training since early May but does not have the screws tightened too tight given the lack of bullets and some easier works relative to how Cox trains many of his horses. Her Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) are light compared to her morning line odds as she does not have an advantage over the rest of the field, though the assumption is that she will take a significant step forward as a three-year-old. The combination of lone speed and potentially needing a race under her belt make me think you MIGHT be able to beat her in this spot, but you better beat her now because I am not sure there are many who will be able to do so after this race on Saturday.

#3 Anna’s Promise (4/1) – A filly with very modest pedigree really started to turn things around under trainer Carlos David as she broke her maiden, won an allowance, and then finished second to Five G in the Florida Oaks (G1) before finishing a distant fifth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Jockey Luis Saez is back aboard and rode her to victory previously and did so from a close tracking position. Saez should try to replicate that ride and trip on Saturday as he needs to pester Running Away or else she will get away from the field. The issue is whether that puts his filly in a tough spot by softening up lone speed only to see someone else profit from that decision. She is 0-4 running at Churchill Downs though three of those starts came under the guidance of previous trainer Dale Romans. Her workouts have been a little slower than normal leading up to Saturday, so I am not necessarily expecting a huge effort, but she is a filly that is tactical and could benefit from just following Running Away around the track.

#6 Take Charge Milady (7/2) – The deep closer for trainer Kenny McPeek was a “wise guy” pick in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and like most wise guy picks, she ran terribly. To be fair to her, she has been dealing with a quarter crack in her hoof and was not able to gallop and train quite as effectively as she would have preferred leading up to that race, so perhaps her fitness and conditioning are in better shape this time around. The shorter field of six horses and a lack of pace could also hinder her chances of winning as she comes from off the pace and often benefits from a bit of a pace collapse. The intriguing part about her is whether jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rides her the way previous jockey Julien Leparoux did in her maiden breaker and in the Martha Washington Stakes. In those races, she sat much closer to the pace and was intently tracking the lead group of horses. In the three races since the Martha Washington, she has not shown nearly as much tactical speed. However, we just saw Sovereignty display new tactics in the Belmont Stakes (G1) last weekend, so perhaps McPeek and Hernandez Jr. can scheme up a place for her to be sitting closer to the lead during the early stages. It is hard to think she will be able to out-finish Immersive while also besting Running Away or Anna’s Promise up front.