Mineshaft Stakes Picks
Fair Grounds, Race 11, Mineshaft Stakes, Post Time- 6:00 PM ET
Pace: Look for a strong early pace in an exciting renewal of the Mineshaft (G3). I would imagine that #3 Tuscan Sky (9/2) will be aggressive with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons and the horse does his best work when sitting a forward trip, which is also the case for #4 Hall of Fame (4/1) for trainer Steve Asmussen. While the horse does not need the lead, he needs to be close as his races where he breaks further back have been poor. The one horse in the field who needs the lead is #7 Batten Down (4/1) as he has only ever won in gate-to-wire fashion and has never shown the desire (or ability) to pass horses. Finally, trainer Robertino Diodoro has an X-factor in the form of #8 Komorebino Omoide (8/1) who also has great early speed and will want to clear most of the field going into the first turn. As a result, the pace scenario will be intriguing as I would imagine jockey Tyler Gaffalione makes sure getting to the lead going into the first turn is priority #1 for Batten Down. Everyone else can sit that stalking/tracking trip so long as they get out of the gate okay. The pace is likely to be contested, but if Gaffalione decided to go forward, I am not sure there is a faster horse into the first turn than Batten Down.
#4 Hall of Fame (4/1) – I am not sure this son of Gun Runner will ever live up to his $1.4 million price tag as he has only won a total of $172,000 on the track. However, one thing that is very apparent is that he runs significantly better with Lasix where he is a perfect 3-3. To quantify the difference, his average Beyer Speed Figure WITH Lasix is 96.3 and he has won those three races by a combined 18 ¾ lengths. His average Beyer Speed Figure WITHOUT Lasix is 76 and he lost those three races by a combined 22 ¾ lengths. While it would be fair to say that when the horse stepped up in competition he has not fired, but in the past that has always coincided with switching off Lasix. On Saturday he does not have to worry about that, which I believe changes the outlook for his chances. He has outstanding early speed but has shown that he can win closely tracking the pace as well. While the forecast for Saturday in New Orleans is improving by the minute, it is also promising to see that he handled a wet track last time out as well should conditions deteriorate between now and Saturday afternoon. On the track, he is an interesting horse who obviously had huge expectations but fell short of those last year. Trainer Steve Asmussen sent him to the bench for eight months after a 10th-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and he appears to have come back an even better version of himself. He’s a perfect 2-2 since getting back on the track having easily beaten allowance and optional claiming competition. Obviously, this will be another test, but that fact it comes with Lasix and jockey Jose Ortiz stays aboard should be viewed as a positive. At 4/1 on the morning line, it is hard to make the case that Hall of Fame presents good value because he has such variability in his performances, but if you isolate the Lasix efforts and assume he can sit just off the pace of Batten Down, he looms as a very logical winner.
#3 Tuscan Sky (9/2) – Another horse that yo-yos between dominant and befuddling performances is Tuscan Sky for trainer Todd Pletcher. The son of Vino Rosso started his career 2-2, but has only beaten a combined seven horses to that point. He had a tough trip and finished well back in the Wood Memorial (G2) before bouncing back to win the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park last summer. From there he turned in a poor effort in the Haskell (G1) before finishing a close second in the Discovery Stakes and then last time out disappointed again in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3). If we use the trend from his last six races, he should be ready to fire a huge effort as he comes back from every poor outing with a strong one. Of course, there is more nuance to it than simply saying he’s an “every other race”-type of horse. Often the poor efforts corresponded with a significant class test or a bad start, but unlike Hall of Fame, he has shown the ability to run well off Lasix, though his first two victories came with Lasix, which he is getting back on Saturday. I think he does present slightly better value for a Pletcher horse jockeyed by Irad Ortiz Jr. simply because people will see those running lines and not know what version of the horse they will get. He has the perfect running style for the race as he can let Batten Down, and others run out up front while sitting more of tracking trip on the rail within a few lengths of the leaders. There are few better than Ortiz Jr. at riding that tracking trip as he is aggressive at getting the horse in the right spot at the right time to make his move. He will need to run back to some of his better efforts, but he has the races in his running lines that are good enough to win this race.
#5 Catching Freedom (3/1) – My 2024 pick for the Kentucky Derby (G1) is making his 2025 debut after being sent to the bench following a disappointing fourth as the 2/5 favorite in the Ohio Derby (G3) last year. The son of Constitution has good back class having won the Smarty Jones Stakes and Louisiana Derby (G2) while finishing on the board in the Preakness (G1) and Risen Star (G2). He is getting Lasix for the first time and is being reunited with his regular jockey Flavien Prat for trainer Brad Cox. Last year he had an off-the-pace running style and I am always weary of those horses making their debuts after a long layoff as their typical closing kick might not be there for them when called upon. He is also a horse that seemed to flatten out from a talent standpoint after running three straight 97 Beyer Speed Figure efforts. Does he have another level? It is distinctly possible, and I am thrilled to see him back in the fray for the older dirt male division, which is now as deep as we have seen it in years with the likes of Sierra Leone, Fierceness, Locked, Mindframe, and more. Still, at 3/1, I am hesitant to back this horse too much despite the trusted connections, getting Lasix for the first time, and the previous strong efforts. The long layoff is a serious question and while his workouts have been incredibly consistent, I do wonder if he finds himself at the back of the back against with too much to do coming for home.
#7 Batten Down (4/1) – One horse who is also coming back from a lengthy layoff is the Bill Mott trainee who has not been seen since the Discovery Stakes where he finished fourth behind the likes of fellow Saturday runner Tuscan Sky. Interestingly, Catching Freedom’s last race was also Batten Down’s biggest win when he took the Ohio Derby (G3) in gate-to-wire fashion. He ended up running third in the Jim Dandy (G2) after that and won the Bourbon Fleet Stakes at Churchill Downs. One thing is for certain, which is that he only has one way to win, which is to go straight to the lead. He loses his regular rider Junior Alvarado for Tyler Gaffalione, likely just due to scheduling conflicts, so you would assume Mott’s instructions to Gaffalione are going to be simple—go. The horse has great pedigree as he is the full sibling to graded stakes winners Tacitus and Scylla, so class has never been an issue. He has had seven official workouts since his last race, so I am not worried about conditioning, but if Hall of Fame and others try to pressure him, then we could see a familiar sight as the horse starts to tire down the stretch, but if he is able to get control of the lead and get comfortable, then he could easily take them gate-to-wire. While he is fourth in my selections, I’d likely play this race three deep in the Late P5 with him, Hall of Fame, and Tuscan Sky while trying to beat Catching Freedom