Met Mile (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

There will be plenty of speed coming out of the Wilson Chute for Saturday’s Metropolitan Handicap (G1). Horses like #2 Vibe (15-1), #4 Saudi Crown (8-1), and #5 Rated by Merit (10-1) all do their best running up front, and let’s not forget #6 Knightsbridge (7-2), who has freakish talent and should be hounding the early pacesetters. Expect #1 Nysos (9-5) and #3 Antiquarian (6-1) to sit behind this early speed, with #7 Journalism (5-2) likely bringing up the end of the field. It’s not that Journalism is slow, but he has been running two-turn races and simply lacks the same sort of sprinter speed you see in this field. While the pace might get hot, horses like Nysos and Antiquarian have such strong foundations to go over a mile that it feels like the race where you might want to have a horse that is sitting just off the pace rather than closing from deep.

Analysis

This is a humdinger of a race that features four previous Grade 1 winners and over $15 million in career purse earnings. The horse that immediately jumps off the page to me is #1 Nysos (9-5) for trainer Bob Baffert. The son of Nyquist has won seven times in nine career starts, with his only two losses coming by a neck in a Grade 1 off a 14-month layoff and a gutsy second to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup (G1) going nine furlongs. He is a brilliant horse and one that does not need the lead, which should set up perfectly on Saturday. Getting out of the Wilson Chute from the inside post position can be tricky, but he benefits from the fact that he can let some of the early speed horses fly out before moving over slightly to avoid the inside rail coming onto the main track. He has won graded stakes races at seven furlongs, a mile, and 1 1/16 miles, but I believe a one-turn mile is his best distance and configuration. While the Wilson Cute is more of a 1.5-turn mile configuration, it should still suit him as he is the reigning Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) champion going two turns at Del Mar. He has plenty of foundation, and even if he gets sucked up near a hot pace, he has the stamina to keep going, as he is much more than a sprinter. For as brilliant as he is, he is also a gutsy horse, as evidenced by his last three performances, winning the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and Lafitte Pincay (G2) with dramatic stretch runs while besting stablemates Citizen Bull and Nevada Beach. His effort in defeat against Forever Young was also a fantastic display of his heart, as he never gave up despite going the distance, and he was well clear of the third-place finisher, Tumbarumba. Yes, he will be making his first start since traveling to the Middle East, but considering how massive he ran in the 2025 Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) coming off a 14-month layoff and early beating a group that included Mindframe, Banishing, Book ‘em Danno, and Mullikin alleviates any concerns I might have about him firing off the bench. The Met Mile (G1) is a stallion-making race, and while Nysos has a Breeders’ Cup victory under his belt, this is the sort of win that will move him to the next level as a future sire.

Another horse who should benefit by sitting just off a strong early pace is #3 Antiquarian (6-1), and he will be an honest price and the type of horse I’ll gladly use in exactas with Nysos. The winner of the 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) has traditionally excelled going longer, but he is coming off a strong 2026 debut in the Westchester (G3), going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct. While it was a short field, he bested Bishop’s Bay by over five lengths, which is quite the accomplishment given that Bishop’s Bay is one of the top milers in the country, having won four graded stakes at the distance, including the 2025 Cigar Mile (G2). The son of Preservationist has always been reliable, finishing in the exacta in eight of 11 career starts, and I love the cutback to a mile, where he has enough speed to stay close to the pace, plus loads of foundation to sustain a serious bid in the stretch. Trainer Todd Pletcher calls upon regular Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez for the mount. Expect Velazquez to keep him close to the pace, as he is a horse who does his best running when sitting close to the pace. His post position should work in his favor as he’ll secure a trip behind the likes of Saudi Crown and Rated by Merit, who are likely to close in front of him from the outside. All reports indicate he has come back better and stronger as a five-year-old, and Pletcher’s placement of him in this race indicates just how well he is training.

If #6 Knightsbridge (7-2) runs his best race, the rest of the field is running for second. It’s that simple. The problem is whether you believe those freakish displays of speed he produced this winter and spring at Gulfstream Park, when he ran three consecutive 100+ Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) races, culminating in a jaw-dropping 112 BSF in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G3). Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has meticulously handled this son of Nyquist, who had a hard time staying on the track early in his career. He finally started stringing together races toward the tail end of 2025 and the start of 2026 down in South Florida, but there is a question about the caliber of competition. During those three graded stakes victories at Gulfstream Park, he beat the likes of Super Chow, Wound Up, Back Em Up, Life and Times, Steal Sunshine, and Flying Liam. Hardly a Murderer’s Row. When he finally faced legitimate Grade 1 runners last time out in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), he got smoked by the likes of T O Elvis, Crazy Mason, and Disruptor. He could not sustain the pace, which featured slow internal fractions as rated by TimeFormUS. Now he is stretching out to a mile while facing a significantly better group that will not be intimidated by his presence. All that said, the horse is poetry in motion when you watch him train in the morning, and Mott is not the type to enter a horse in a Grade 1 coming off a bad defeat if he does not believe the horse fits in the race. He is fast enough to pressure the early pacesetters and draws to the outside of the remaining speed in the race, which is an ideal spot for jockey Junior Alvarado. He is a “boom/bust” type of play, but he could make everyone look foolish (or like a genius) come Saturday afternoon.

It feels a little foolish putting #7 Journalism (5-2) in my fourth spot…or does it? The son of Curlin was my favorite horse in last year’s three-year-old crop and provided some thrilling moments when winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1), but he could never get the better of Sovereignty when they squared off in the Kentucky Derby (G1) or Belmont Stakes (G1). He failed to beat older horses in the Pacific Classic (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), where he finished an admirable fourth but was never truly a factor in the outcome of the race. He came back in 2026, and the connections decided to take on the Boogey Man right off the bat as he faced off with Sovereignty in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2). The race took a surprising turn when Sovereignty went to the lead, and jockey Jose Ortiz decided to put Journalism just off his hip, pressing the pace. At the top of the stretch, Sovereignty looked like he might be out of gas, and despite sitting in a position where he could capitalize, Journalism was simply incapable of getting by and was ultimately passed by White Abarrio to finish third. Now he cuts back to a mile, a distance he has not run since his maiden-breaking score in 2024, and finds himself running against a salty group of horses that are bred and excel at running the mile distance. While he has intermittently shown speed going two turns in his previous starts, there is a world of difference between the sort of speed he has versus horses like Nysos and even Antiquarian, who regularly track close to sprinter fractions. He is likely to find himself hung wide and at the back of the field. I still love the horse and admire the connections for running him in big spots, but if he couldn’t pass Sovereignty in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) going his best distance, what makes you think he’s going to run past Nysos, Knightsbridge, Antiquarian, and even Saudi Crown going their best distance?