Matron (G3) Picks

An intriguing race sprinting on the turf for juvenile fillies in a race that features a load of early speed. As a result, I am looking for a few runners with experience coming from off the pace which led me to #10 Abientot (10/1) who is coming off a solid third-place finish in the Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs going 6 ½ furlongs. The course at Kentucky Downs is not for everyone, but this daughter of Not This Time handled it well making up significant ground late and should be able to do it again. She retains regular jockey Dylan Davis who has continued to ride well after a profitable Saratoga meet and the horse should get the perfect setup on Sunday as she likes to come from off the pace but can stay within 4-5 lengths of the early lead. With several horses likely to blaze up front, she stands out at a great value play. A horse that finished just behind her last time out, #11 Civetta (8/1) is another good value play in this spot with jockey Flavien Prat aboard for trainer Brendan Walsh. The Godolphin homebred won in debut at Ellis Park and then has a tough trip late in the Untapable last time out where she finished fourth. She prefers to track the pace, which is not an issue with the outside post position, but I do wonder whether Horacio De Paz’s #12 Yougottahavehope (8/1) could prevent her from getting the perfect trip. That runner has outstanding early speed and is likely to cross in front of her early, which could force her further back than she would like. If Prat can work out the right trip, I believe she’s got the talent and pedigree to contend. Meanwhile, #7 Flirting With Time (6/1) ran an absolutely hole in the wind last time out where she broke her maiden at Kentucky Downs while wiring the field by 7 ¾ lengths. Can she replicate that performance for trainer Joe Sharp and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.? Possibly. I think it is telling that Hernandez Jr. is coming up here for the mount as he typically rides in Kentucky at Keeneland, so whenever you see a jockey give up a day at their regular track for another one, it is typically because they really like they horse they are riding. Sharp had an outstanding Saratoga meet but has not gotten a win yet during BAQ this fall, though it is a small sample size. As mentioned above, there is a lot of speed for this one to deal with on Sunday and she is not going to get the sort of easy lead she got last time, but perhaps she just needed a few starts to build her conditioning and if she can replicate that last effort, she will be hard to beat. Finally, #8 Laurice (7/2) for trainer George Weaver won impressively in debut as she stalked the early pace and then fought off foes down the stretch to earn a 73 Beyer Speed Figure for her first time out. She has come back to train well since that effort and picks up jockey Manny Franco who is always aggressive with horses out of the gate. She will be part of the early pace scenario for a barn that has heated up since we have moved back to the city as Weaver was struggling to win at Saratoga, but notably Laurice was one of those winners at The Spa. She is certainly capable of the win and has good turf pedigree, but I do wonder if the step up in class combined with additional pace pressure might make it a little too much for a horse that will be a short price relatively to the rest of the field.