Los Alamitos Futurity Picks

Pace: While it is only a five-horse field, the fact three Bob Baffert horses are entered make the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and intriguing race to watch at Kentucky Derby (G1) points are on the line now that Baffert is allowed to enter horses at Churchill Downs after a 3+ year suspension. As you might expect, all three Baffert horses have good speed, but it feels unlikely that they’ll duel themselves into submission. #2 Mellencamp (15/1) is getting the blinkers off and stretching out, which might be an indication he will rate a bit more. Expect jockey Flavien Prat to get #1 Gaming (2/5) well positioned early and near the lead. While he came from off the pace to win under Prat in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), he got caught in a merry-go-round race last time out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he finished second to stablemate Citizen Bull. The long homestretch at Los Alamitos means that I’ll be interested in seeing whether #5 Journalism (6/1) can grind away at tiring leaders late.

#1 Gaming (2/5) – The son of Game Winner is your likely single in this Late Pick 5 sequence on Saturday night at Los Alamitos. He has won two of his three starts including the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and his first time trying two turns was a solid second-place effort to his stablemate Citizen Bull in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). I am not a big fan of Game Winner as a sire, but Gaming does appear to be a horse with some legitimate talent, though I am unsure about him going over nine furlongs. Lucky for him, this race is at 8 ½ furlongs. Baffert has brought this horse back for four workouts since the Breeders’ Cup and he has looked sharp in all of them. To this point, I have been fading Breeders’ Cup runners in their next start and while I have been cashing tickets as a result, it is fair to point out that many of them have run well enough with Jonathan’s Way finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and Mullikin and Post Time finishing second and third in the Cigar Mile (G2). Baffert is the exception to many rules of handicapping in our sport. Additionally, over the last five years, jockey Flavien Prat has won 38% (30-80) of Baffert mounts in graded stakes races. Gaming has the tactical ability to come from off the pace, but I would suspect Prat will put him on the lead or sit no worse than an inside second saving ground.

#5 Journalism (6/1) – If there is one non-Baffert horse who could crash the party, it is Michael McCarthy’s son of Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare. Think this horse will like distance? The former $825,000 purchase has some lofty expectations, and he showed some of that promise last time out when he broke his maiden going a mile at Del Mar. He likes to come from off the pace, has shown the ability to pass horses, and should appreciate the stretching out as well as Los Alamito’s track layout with the long homestretch. Look for jockey Umberto Rispoli to sit toward the back of the field and then start grinding away coming for home. He showed a marked improvement second time out and if he can continue to progress off his 82 Beyer Speed Figure from his last effort then he has a real chance to upset the field. From a betting perspective, I mentioned that Gaming is the likely single of the sequence. I would go as far as to say, if you want to beat Gaming, I would single Journalism instead because I do not have as much confidence in the other significant Baffert entry (more on him in a minute). McCarthy has a good record in dirt graded stakes races, winning 18% of them over the last five years. The combination of pedigree and potential improvement along with the fact he should appreciate the track, makes him a viable alternative to the favorite.

#3 Getaway Car (3/1) – The other main Bob Baffert runner is also coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he finished fourth. There was minimal passing in the race, so it is hard to hold it against him that he did not make up ground, however, he does seem to be a one-paced runner who needs the lead. Both of his career wins, which includes the Best Pal (G3), came on the lead and in his three subsequent starts he either tired late after setting the early pace or ran in place behind the leaders. Jockey Juan Hernandez stays aboard, which certainly inspires confidence, and it is possible that due to Mellencamp taking off blinkers that Getaway Car shoots to the lead and takes them all the way around like what Citizen Bull did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He has the pedigree to suggest distance will be beneficial and he has the other positive Baffert angle, which is consecutive six-furlong workouts leading up to a big race. I have a feeling Baffert is trying to build in more foundation to ensure the distance will not be an issue. He has not run poorly the last two times out and boasts the second-best Beyer Speed Figures in the field, but he will need to prove that he is in the upper echelon of his stable at a relatively short price.