Lexington Stakes Picks

Pace: Despite a few horses stretching out to two turns for the first time, expect a moderate pace in this year’s renewal of the Lexington (G3) as #6 Gosger (7/2) should be the dominant speed horse with #7 Praetor (2/1) flanking off him. Outside of those two, there is limited speed signed on. It is possible that #3 Bullard (9/2) could flash better speed having only sprinted in California to this point in his career and he certainly boasts a solid resume despite only having one victory. There is also the possibility that #5 Native Runner (15/1) will send for trainer Kenny McPeek to try to set things up for his stablemate #8 Hypnus (6/1) who likes to come from off the pace. However, it seems unlikely the horse has the nature speed to challenge the top two. Based upon the way Keeneland’s main track plays, it is hard to see a winner coming from far off the pace to win this final Kentucky Derby prep.

#6 Gosger (7/2) – There is plenty to like about this Brendan Walsh trainee who will be making his third career start after breaking his maiden last time out going a mile at Gulfstream Park. Despite this being his first two turn test, his pedigree points to wanting more distance. He is sired by Nyquist whose offspring are winning 17% of their dirt route races and Gosger is out of an unraced Tapit mare (Gloria S) who has produced Grade 1-winning router Harvey’s Lil Goil in addition to Grade 3-placed dirt router Archie the Giza. It is also promising that Gosger experienced a big step forward as he stretched out from his debut distance of six furlongs where he was toward the back of the field early before making up ground to finish a competitive fourth. He had about two months off before his second start where he stretched out to a one-turn mile where he closely stalked the early pace before taking over the lead and winning over Pitkin by a length and a half. Pitkin is the horse that finished second to Jimmy’s Dailys while beating Disruptor in debut and both of those horses went on to run in the Florida Derby (G1) two weeks ago. While Gosger is switching off Lasix for this race, his perk up to an 88 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) feels like it has less to do with receiving Lasix for that race and more to do with getting more distance. The added half furlong should be no problem, and he should appreciate going two turns with a relatively modest pace. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is taking over the mount from Edgar Zayas and considering he draws inside the other potential speed presence, look for him to be aggressive getting to the front and clearing over to the rail going into the first turn. Ortiz Jr. is not always the best on the lead, so pay attention to fractional times early in the race, but if he can avoid going as fast as East Avenue did in the Blue Grass (G1) on Tuesday, he should be able to hold on at the end.

#3 Bullard (9/2) – The California-based shipper trained by Michael McCarthy has been living in the shadow of his more dominant stablemate, Journalism, who is the recent winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1). However, this son of Gun Runner is no slouch and has every opportunity to move forward in a big way on Saturday to throw his name into contention for the Preakness (G1) or other big races later this summer. He won in debut last September going six furlongs at Del Mar in a race that produced three next out winners, including Bullard who came back a little over two months later to win the Bob Hope (G3) while defeating Madaket Road who we saw place in the Rebel (G2) a little over a month ago before finishing fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). Bullard ran again in January in the San Vicente (G2) against Barnes and Romanesque where he finished third, but the horse went to the bench for the next four months and has had some breaks in his training but has been steadily back on the work tab for the last month while looking sharp. He has traditionally come from the back half of fields in his three previous starts, but those were all California sprints where fractions can be blazing. With him stretching out against a field that lacks early speed, I think Bullard could be sitting a tracking or mid-pack trip, which would put him in the perfect position to make a move to ensure he does not have too much to do at the top of the short stretch. I am very bullish (no pun intended) on his chances on Saturday and will have him on all my Late P5 tickets. My only reservation is with jockey Umberto Rispoli who tends to be best on the turf and can occasionally be outclassed when coming to Kentucky. He got Journalism in a tough spot last Saturday and while Bullard should have a relatively easy trip, I do not always trust Rispoli to put him in the best position to win.

#7 Praetor (2/1) – Is it possible that Praetor is trainer Chad Brown’s best three-year-old after we saw his previous star pupil, Chancer McPatrick, badly disappoint in the Blue Grass (G1) earlier this week? I think signs point to yes being the answer to that question. He ran third in debut at Saratoga in a race that was won in dazzling fashion by two-time Grade 1 runner-up Ferocious. He came back less than two months later and defeated Sovereignty to break his maiden while being assigned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF). All Sovereignty has done is win the Street Sense (G3), Fountain of Youth (G2), and finish second in the Florida Derby (G1) while cementing himself as a top contender for the Kentucky Derby (G1). However, Praetor went to the bench nearly six months before returning to face optional claiming company going one mile at Gulfstream Park in March. He won that race impressively as he stalked the early pace and drew off to win by 7+ lengths. However, there might not have been that much quality in the six-horse field as runner-up Kinetic Control came back to run a disappointing eighth by over 12 lengths on Wednesday at Keeneland against optional claiming company. Meanwhile, the third-place finisher in Praetor’s last win is Bear Claw Necklace who was a 50/1 longshot entered in the Wood Memorial (G2) who ended up scratching. It is also noteworthy that his BSF went down from 90 to 79 in his return. The horse has gotten in three additional workouts and should be in good condition for Saturday. From a pedigree standpoint, he is sired by Into Mischief, which can point to more of a sprint/miler profile, but he is out of a Curlin mare, though his full sibling, Charlottesapproval, is a one-turn turf runner up at Woodbine and the half-sibling, Tapit’s Approval, made one career start sprinting on the turf. Brown has yet to saddle a winner during the Keeneland Spring Meet this year, though he has had incredible success during this meet in previous years in both dirt and turf races. Jockey Flavien Prat gets back on the mount after skipping his last start, which I view as a good sign given his familiarity with the horse and the fact he rode him to his maiden victory. Praetor will be a short price, and the question is whether you feel confident enough to single him or play against him in your wagers.

#5 Native Runner (15/1) – I could spend some time talking about trainer Kenny McPeek’s other horse, #8 Hynus (6/1), in this spot and he certainly is a logical contender having faced significantly tougher fields the last two times out in the Rebel (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G2). The late-running son of Into Mischief out of an Uncle Mo mare is getting blinkers added, but over the last five years, McPeek is 0-7 winning when adding blinkers in dirt route stakes races and only 1-7 hitting the board in those spots. Therefore, I want to take a closer look at his stablemate who broke his maiden two back against $50,000 maiden optional claiming company in an off-turf race. Hardly an overwhelming profile, but this son of Laoban out of a Bernardini mare showed some impressive talent in that victory coming from 12 lengths back in the early going of the race to get up for a nose victory. McPeek stepped him up against optional claiming company last time out where he won a completely different way going straight to the front and won in nearly gate-to-wire fashion down at Fair Grounds with jockey Jose Ortiz aboard. Ortiz remains aboard for Saturday, which is a huge positive and the horse has shown the versatility to sit a few different trips. I do not believe he has the natural speed to press Gosger or Praetor, but considering the pace scenario, I could easily foresee a version of this race where he is sitting third throughout most of the race before trying to make a move at the top of the stretch. His 84 BSF that he was assigned from his last race holds up well for this group and if he can move forward that would be enough to put him in with a serious shot. The problem with taking too big of a swing with him is McPeek’s “off Lasix” numbers over the past five years. During that stretch he is 1-24 (4%) when switching his three-year-old males off Lasix in stakes races and only 7-24 (29%) hitting the board. I think Native Runner is strictly an underneath play, but I could see him running better than expected to grab a minor award and enriching your vertical exotics.