Lecomte Stakes Picks

Pace: Expect a strong pace on Saturday at Fair Grounds in the Lecomte with several horses pushing for the lead. Starting from the inside, #1 Innovator (10/1) is plenty fast and will have urgency to escape the inside post and avoid getting shuffled back, so expect jockey Jaime Torres to send hard from the rail. What makes his job difficult is #2 Maximum Promise (10/1) might have even better speed and will be fresh coming off the bench for trainer Kenny McPeek. Those two are going to battle for position going into the first turn as both have only won on the lead. Meanwhile, Steve Asmussen’s #4 Magnitude (6/1) is a horse that likes to be close and should take up a stalking trip while #5 Optical (20/1) is getting blinkers on and already had good early speed. Dallas Stewart has a pair of entries with strong early pace, and we have not yet gotten to #11 Disco Time (9/2) or #13 Built (3/1) who both do their best work up front. The pace has the potential to collapse, but there is also a possibility the connections realize that and a few of these horses decide to rate.

#11 Disco Time (9/2) – Trainer Brad Cox always seems to have a bountiful collection of Kentucky Derby and Oaks prospects this time of year and in Disco Time he has another promising contender. Cox has struggled a bit with his entries at Oaklawn Park this winter, but he has his top horses at Fair Grounds where he is winning at a 30% clip for the meet. Additionally, over the last five years, Cox has won 33% of his dirt route graded stakes races for three-year-olds at Fair Grounds. Not bad. His #1 jockey Florent Geroux is up on the mount for this son of Not This Time who is an outstanding stamina influence as his offspring win at a 19% clip in dirt route races. Underneath, Disco Time’s dam (Disco Chick) was a four-time stakes winner sprinting on the dirt. The combination of stamina over speed gives this runner the ability to get out up front and keep going. His first two races have been incredibly impressive as he showed the ability to rate in debut and then went straight to the front last time out while doing the one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. Two turns will be a test, but the fact the horse showed the ability to pass others while going wide gives hope this next step on Saturday will not be too much. Geroux will have to make some quick decisions based upon the early pace, but the field has the potential to get strung out and if he can ensure Disco Time is sitting in a stalking trip within a couple lengths of the pace, this horse should kick on well turning for home.

#3 Admiral Dennis (8/1) – Let’s go from one Brad Cox horse to the other. The son of Constitution out of a Union Rags mare had a poor showing in the Gun Runner where he went off as the 4/5 favorite. However, he stumbled out of the gate and never seemed to find a comfortable rhythm before making an early move around the turn and then fading down the stretch. The pedigree would suggest two turns is not an issue and he sat behind a couple of horses in his maiden breaking win two back. He has been favored in all three career starts and now you are getting a honest price on a horse that has a decent price tag ($425,000 at sale) and a top barn. Hall of Fame jockey Joel Rosario takes over the right and it feels like the right time for Rosario to do his thing where he drops a horse a little further back, gets them comfortable, and then makes a big run coming for home. He would need to improve off his career-best Beyer Speed Figure (83), but I am willing to give this horse a second chance after a poor start in his first stakes races. With the amount of speed in the race, his ability to come from off the pace and pass horses could allow this race to setup for him much better than in the Gun Runner where you saw soft fractions being set by #13 Built who was able to take them gate-to-wire.

#7 Calling Card (12/1) – I debated putting #1 Innovator (10/1) in this spot as he has easily faced the best competition of the group despite being a last out maiden winner. When you see horses like Barnes, Chancer McPatrick, Owen Almighty, Tough Catch, and Sandman, then you know you are battle tested. That said, he will still need to overcome some serious pace pressure, and I am not sure he is good enough for this group. Therefore, I looked for a horse that could come from off the pace should things melt down up front, which brought me to Calling Card for trainer Mike Maker. The NY-bred broke his maiden against state-bred company at Aqueduct back in November where he came flying from off the pace to win by over 17 lengths. Based upon that effort he was the 9/5 second choice next time out at Oaklawn Park against open optional claiming company where he finished third but did so to a very nice horse named Sandman who has Kentucky Derby dreams of his own. Despite the loss, he was still able to pass other runners and now comes into a race where the chance for a pace meltdown is high. The son of Complexity has been working out well since going to Fair Grounds last month. While Complexity is generally a better sprint influence, the dam (Graceful Rage) has produced several dirt route winners and was a dirt route winner as well, which makes me think he can get the distance given his running style and pace projection.

#13 Built (3/1) – Your morning line favorite is coming off a dominant effort in the Gun Runner for trainer Wayne Catalano. The horse has won consecutive races since losing in debut to East Avenue and all that horse did was win the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). The son of Hard Spun has gotten faster every time out, but his 92 Beyer Speed Figure last time might be hard to top. While he showed the ability to stalk the pace against maidens, he was able to get a rather easy lead and set comfortable fractions in the Gun Runner, neither of which will happen on Saturday. He will have to work hard to get to the front and will have to contend with being stuck four or five wide going into the first turn if the early speed stacks up across the track. It’s great to see jockey Jareth Loveberry in the saddle as he did such a wonderful job riding Two Phil’s a couple years back on his way to a gutsy runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). However, Built will be a bet against for me in a loaded field and a relatively short price.