Las Virgenes Stakes (G3) Picks

It’s the long awaited, or maybe just on my end, showdown between two highly regarded Bob Baffert fillies - Tenma and Cipriani – in the Las Virgenes (G3) at Santa Anita this Sunday. Although it’s understandable to look elsewhere for value in this five-horse field, these two horses are your main players.

Your 2-5 morning line favorite is the #4 Tenma, and we saw break her maiden on debut back in August. She then paired that effort with a win against G1 company in the Del Mar Debutante next time out. While she did take a bit of a step back in the Oak Leaf (G2), it’s notable that she was brushed out of the gate and didn’t work out the easiest of trips. She quickly redeemed herself in her second 1 1/16 mile attempt with Hernandez in the irons for the first time and won the Starlet (G2) in impressive fashion. She was pressured by Look Forward for the majority of the race and pulled away in the final furlong to prove best. It’s also encouraging to see that Look Forward came back to win the Santa Ynez following that runner up effort.

The daughter of Nyquist holds an advantage over the others in the field as they are all are coming into this fresh off their maiden win, besides Lolo Le Plume who is still a maiden. The speed Tenma showed in her last effort and the fact that she’s been able to come from off the pace as well gives her an edge coming into this race.

The X Factor in this race is the other Baffert trainee at 8-1 on the morning line, #5 Cipriani. She earned a light Beyer Speed Figure of 58 for her debut, but she won in hand by 8 ¼ lengths at the 6 ½ furlong distance. There are no distance doubts in this daughter of Bernardini’s pedigree, and Bernardini’s progeny win 17% of dirt routes. Although she is out of a Stakes winning dam who went 0-for-2 in races at 1 Mile or longer, it’s nice to see that her three other foals to race include route winners Flying Drummer and Ruthanne.

Another thing to note is that Cipriani’s main workout partners have been Baffert colts Romanesque and Gaming. Working with the boys might indicate how highly regarded she is in the barn. That said, her and Tenma worked in company back on January 12th and I preferred Tenma’s work as her huge stride and ability to accelerate around the turn are stand out qualities. Tenma then put in a 5F bullet work on January 18th.

Cipriani is very likely to take a big step up here, but will it be enough to beat the more seasoned Tenma? Reach out on NYRA Bets to give us your take.