Ladies Stakes Picks

Analysis

Perhaps this race is as easy as singling the horse with the highest speed figures, but for me I think there is a chance to upset your heavy morning line favorite, #1 Weigh the Risks (3/5). To be clear, it will not be an easy task, and I would hardly blame anyone for singling Chad Brown’s runner and moving on to the next race, but I think it’s worth some exploration. The daughter of Mendelssohn has been dominant around one turn, winning five of her last six races, including back-to-back stakes coming into Saturday’s contest, but she is stretching out to nine furlongs for the first time in her career. From a pedigree standpoint, she should be able to handle two turns as her half-sibling, Nerazurri, recently won a stakes race at Oaklawn Park going 8.5 furlongs earlier this month. However, it is notable that Weigh the Risks moved forward significantly when she stopped routing on the turf and started sprinting on the dirt. In her lone attempt going two turns on dirt, she finished seventh by 13 lengths over a wet track at Churchill Downs. You can make some excuses as she was much younger and running over a sloppy track, but it’s not surprising to see a turf router struggling longer on the dirt as running on grass can often be a remedy when a horse struggles to get a particular distance over the main track. Looking at her recent dirt form, she has outstanding speed and has shown the ability to even rate slightly off the pace, which won’t be the case on Saturday. She is going to go to the front under the guidance of Manny Franco who has been aboard the last five times out. He will try to divvy out the fractions to ensure she can get two turns. There is not a load of other speed, so I think she will get the trip, and I’ll include her in my Late Pick 5 ticket, but as my top choice, I’ll take a chance with another runner.

#7 Quietside (9/2) is a horse who I’ve always liked for trainer John Ortiz. My hope on Saturday is that jockey Jose Lezcano gives her the ride Jose Ortiz gave her when she was campaigning for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Oaklawn Park last year. In both the Honeybee (G3) and Fantasy (G2), Ortiz had the horse sitting right on top of the leader, and I believe that’s when she is at her best. She is third back in the form cycle and is coming off a runner-up finish in the Comely (G3) last time out as she ran up against another impressive Chad Brown filly, Fully Subscribed, who appears to be a major force in the Distaff division. She was unable to close the gap against her, but it’s encouraging that she moved forward 26 points in her Beyer Speed Figures (BSF). If she can take another 8-10-point move forward, that should be enough to win, as I expect Weigh the Risks to take a slight step back as she stretches out to nine furlongs. John Ortiz has been on fire at Aqueduct for the last three months, winning 33% (8-24) of his overall entries and 43% of his stakes runners. Additionally, the daughter of Malibu Moon is training lights out for Shortleaf Stable as she recorded a 47-second four-furlong bullet workout on January 10 that was first of 98. I am expecting a big effort and the ability to get a better price than backing Weigh the Risks.

A horse that I love, but I’m not sure what to expect from, is #4 Scalable (6/1) for trainer Todd Pletcher. The daughter of Speightstown does have a graded stakes victory going two turns, but I think she is best when running one-turn races to allow pace to develop in front of her. She is a deep closer, and when she tries to sit close to the pace, as she did last time out in the Go For Wand, she flattens out in the stretch. She’s never gotten the best of Weigh the Risks in their two previous showdowns, but she does have two wins going two turns. So, while there might be a lack of pace, she has at least shown we can handle distance, which is likely due to her Tapit influence on her dam’s side. My biggest concern with using her as a top choice is that even her best BSF are likely not good enough to win, and she has not shown anything to suggest a leap forward is in the cards. Additionally, it’s telling that Pletcher has kept her in New York while the top horses in his barn have traveled to South Florida.

Finally, you have an intriguing runner in the form of #6 Just Katherine (10/1). She is making her second start after a 14-month layoff, so she has every opportunity to move forward from her distant third-place finish in last month’s Go For Wand Stakes. She has never won off Lasix, but she’s run well in stakes races in the past when she finished second in the Bed of Roses (G2) in 2024. It is promising that trainer Jose Jiminez places here in this spot after her effort last time out. While she could improve her 83 BSF from last time, she did not crack a 90 BSF since September 2023, so it is hard to imagine that a massive step forward is in the cards. The other thing I would add is that jockey Sahin Civaci is 0-25 during the current Aqueduct winter meet and has had a hard time getting back into a rhythm since coming back from an injury. I’ve seen him move horses too early and often not realize the track bias that exists that other jockeys use to their advantage. Civaci is a good jockey, and I’ve seen him give some great rides, so I think it will all come together soon, but it’s hard to back him right now, particularly when his horse needs a big jump forward to upset.