King's Plate Picks
The 2026 renewal of The King's Plate is a battle of the sexes with #1 Luster (even) being the overwhelming favorite to beat the boys. The daughter of Knicks Go for trainer Josie Carol has decimated her competition the last two races as she has stretched out in distance. She has good early speed to sit a pocket trip while saving ground with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez on the mount. She is not some Woodbine specialist either. She crushed allowance competition at Keeneland in her second career start with Velazquez aboard and could be a major player later in the year on the turf.
Meanwhile, #8 Highwaytothemoon (6/1) is coming off a victory in the Plate Trial last month and seems to appreciate the added distance. He backed up his 85 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Queenston Stakes at seven furlongs with another 85 while trying nine furlongs for the first time. He will need to get faster to beat the filly, but he should sit a similar trip having gone to the lead in previous starts, but showing the ability to rate kindly in his most recent victory. He also is working out very well for trainer Dale Desruisseaux as evidences by a very quick work on August 1 that was first of 82 in the morning.
Luster isn't the only filly in the race and #5 Dixie Law (10/1) could present the best value in the entire field. The daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law is out of a Union Rags mare and should relish the 1 1/4 mile distance. While she was second-best to Luster in her last two starts, her back-to-back 88 Beyer Speed Figures from those efforts are the tops in the field outside of the even money favorite. She should not be 10/1 and has every opportunity to run well at a price to enrich exactas and trifectas.
Finally, #9 Brachetto (5/1) is coming off an impressive victory in the Marine (G3) for trainer Julia Carey. He is sired by Vekoma and while I like his progeny around two turns on the synthetic and turf, I do have my questions about the 1 1/4 mile distance with that pedigree. He will need to get significantly faster to compete with Luster and others, but is still lightly raced and working well in the morning, meaning that a career-best effort is not out of the card.