Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) Picks

Pace Scenario

Pace in turf marathon races in New York can be anyone’s guess, but it typically ranges from slow to glacial. The pace in this year’s Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) might skew more toward glacial, as no horses in the field show the desire to take the initiative early. It would appear the early lead is there for the taking for either #6 Fort George or #7 Program Trading. The former closely stalked the pace in this year’s Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga, and the latter won on the lead in the 2023 Saratoga Derby (G1). However, both typically run best at a target, which could lead them to defer to each other. While pace is always important, we have seen that a slow pace does not eliminate deep closers, as demonstrated by Survie in this year’s Christophe Clement Turf (G1). Additionally, though a limited sample size, there has not been a gate-to-wire winner going a mile or longer over the turf course at New Belmont Park.

Analysis

During the Saratoga meet, we routinely saw European runners come to New York and win graded stakes races, with the likes of Survie, Kensington Lane, and Glacius all taking Grade 1s on the turf at The Spa. Therefore, my eyes immediately went to #2 Pride of Arras (4-1), who is making his North American debut after taking the September Stakes (G3) in his last race at Kempton going Saturday’s distance. The son of New Bay is conditioned by top European trainer Ralph Beckett, and it’s telling that jockey James Doyle is coming overseas for the mount. Pride of Arras is an accomplished distance runner in Great Britain, having won a pair of Group 2 races last year at York before returning to the winner’s circle last time out. He has also faced some of the world's top horses when stepping up into Group 1 company, where he’s knocked heads with the likes of Calandagan and Lambourn. While he was no match for either, it shows you the superior level of competition he has faced. He is in good form currently, having last run in early September, and his back-to-back 117 TimeForm Ratings from the last two races compare very favorably to some of the more highly regarded European runners coming over for this race. From a trip perspective, he should sit mid-pack based on his running style overseas, but with the lack of pace, you might see Doyle be aggressive early to ensure he is not far off it turning for home. With El Cordobes drawing more attention from the European runners, a pair of Chad Brown entries, and the well-backed Far Bridge in the field, it feels like you can get a fair price on a classy horse in good form who loves the distance.

Another horse that might fly under the radar is #1 Minaret Station (7-2) for trainer Will Walden. The four-year-old son of Instilled Regard has never run a bad race and earned between a 95 and 97 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in each start of his 2026 campaign. He is remarkably consistent but has come up short of getting a breakthrough victory in recent starts. Last time out, Survie passed him in the final strides of the Christophe Clement Turf (G1) as the European mare stormed past the entire field. In the previous race, he would have needed only a few more strides to win the Bowling Green (G2) but settled for a narrow third as the leaders dominated, and he came from further off the pace. Saturday will mark only his third try at the marathon distance, but he has rewarded Walden’s decision to stretch him out. His pedigree is all turf distance: his sire was a Grade 1 winner on the turf going 10 furlongs, and his dam was a Grade 2 winner going 8.5 furlongs on the grass. He will be able to save all the ground on Saturday breaking from the inside post, and it is positive that jockey Jose Ortiz opts to remain aboard. He should be sitting just behind the leaders and get first run at them coming for home.

The morning line favorite is #3 El Cordobes (5-2), who won last year’s Sword Dancer (G1) before eventually finishing third in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) to Ethical Diamond and Rebel’s Romance. The Charlie Appleby trainee deserves respect, but I see reasons to play against him on Saturday. While Appleby has dominated top turf races in North America over the last five years, that has not always been the case in New York, where he is only 18% (5-28) in Grade 1s during that stretch. Compare that to his gaudy 33% Grade 1 winning percentage at all other North American tracks during the last five years. I’m hesitant to back Appleby runners in New York because I know they will be overbet, and they haven't delivered on those odds. Meanwhile, El Cordobes has not run since February 14 when he finished a distant fifth at Doha in the Amir Trophy (G2). It certainly feels like this will be a prep race to get him ready for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) at Keeneland and a race where you can reasonably try to be the son of Frankel owned by Godolphin. He has never run poorly in North America, but this feels like a stepping-stone race for bigger things, and he could be formidable come October in the Breeders’ Cup, but for today, I’ll push him further down the pecking order and hope to beat the favorite.

There are a few places I looked for my fourth selection. #6 Fort George is a horse I like, but he is hardly the winning type with a 3-14 lifetime record. I always have respect for #4 Far Bridge for trainer Miguel Clement, but the former Grade 1 winner has not raced since late March in the Pan American (G3) at Gulfstream Park. While he always runs well off the bench, this is easily the toughest group he has faced under those circumstances. As a result, I landed on #7 Program Trading (5-1) for trainer Chad Brown, as the son of Lope de Vega has just continued to improve throughout his 2026 campaign. He is a two-time Grade 1 winner going back to 2023 and 2024, but it took him time to get back to the winner’s circle after a 14-month layoff. Eventually, Brown shipped him to Monmouth Park and dropped him in class, as he won the Monmouth Stakes before stepping up to win the United Nations (G2) at Monmouth the following month. That said, the horses he beat weren't overwhelming, and I was skeptical of him coming into the Christophe Clement Turf (G1). While he finished third, he put in a good run against Minaret Station and Survie despite a wide trip and a yielding turf course. He does tend to like softer ground, as he is 3-4 winning over good or yielding turf, but he’s won plenty of races over firm ground, which suggests Saturday will not be a problem. Betting against Chad Brown on the turf at Belmont Park (old or new) is always risky, and he is a horse I’ll be including in my Late P5 ticket.