Jockey Club Oaks Picks

A pair of top three-year-old fillies headline Saturday’s Jockey Club Oaks (G3) at Aqueduct as there will be a showdown between Laurelin and Fionn. The duo has a total of eight combined stakes victories, including three graded stakes races. #7 Laurelin is where I will go with my top selection as the Graham Motion trainee has shown greater consistency in recent starts regarding her Beyer Speed Figures (BSFs). She comes into Saturday with five wins in six starts with her lone defeat being a runner-up. The daughter of French sire Zarak has been facing stakes competition since breaking her maiden in debut at Belmont at the Big A as a juvenile. She rattled off four straight stakes victories in the Tepin, Memories of Silver, Pennsylvania Oaks, and Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2). One of the more impressive features of those victories was her steady incremental improvement of BSF, going from 76 to 80 to 84 to 94. Following her win in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) she stepped up against Grade 1 company for the first time in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) at Keeneland. I was a bit skeptical of her chances that day, but she ran very well finishing second to Lush Lips who got the jump on the field in a race dominated by early speed. More importantly, she largely backed up her 94 BSF from the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) as she was assigned a 92 BSF for her effort. Her consistency gives her the edge over the rest of the field as does the fact her best effort to date was going her longest distance, which makes me think the 11-furlong distance will not be an issue. There seems to be minimal pace signed on and Laurelin, with jockey Kendrick Carmouche aboard, should be sitting close to the pace where she is able to make the first move.

While Laurelin is the likely favorite, I would love to go against Fionn as the other runners should provide better value in vertical exotics. #5 Evershed is an interesting choice as she finished second to Laurelin in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) before finishing second again in the Old Dominion Oaks over a soft turf course at Colonial Downs. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is always dangerous with his turf runners and jockey Dylan Davis hops back aboard after riding her this summer at Saratoga. She could very well end up being the controlling speed in the race where there is likely to be minimal pace pressure and could go all the way around. She has traditionally come from off the pace but was put on the lead last time out at Colonial Downs but was napped late. However, the soft turf conditions could have contributed to tiring late in the race. Certainly, you can look at the running lines and point out the BSF from the Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) is an anomaly, but the fact she’s run well without Lasix against this caliber of competition gives me confidence she can hit the board and be a useful horse to include in exactas and trifectas.

Obviously, #4 Fionn is a formidable runner in this spot having defeated Nitrogen in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) this summer. She has only missed the board once in her career, which took place last time out in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) at Keeneland. Prior to that she had rattled off three straight graded stakes wins at three different courses: Churchill Downs, Saratoga, and Kentucky Downs. Her top BSF (91) came at Saratoga in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) but regressed to run consecutive 85 BSF in the Dueling Ground Oaks (G3) and Queen Elizabeth II (G1). When looking at her overall form, the 91 BSF seems to be the exception to the rule as she typically runs in the low-to-mid 80s, which would not be good enough to win in this spot. Trainer Brad Cox is taking the blinkers off the daughter of Twirling Candy for the first time in her career to wake her up a bit. Cox is extraordinary with the blinkers off move with fillies and mares (30%), but he rarely has this success in stakes races as he is only 1-7 doing this move over the last five years. The biggest issue working against Fionn is that she lacks early speed and could give her too much to do at the top of the stretch. While she powerfully closed behind glacial paces down at Fair Grounds, that also has a lot to do with the nature of that turf course and all three of those efforts came with Lasix. Her tactical disadvantage compared to Laurelin was apparent in the Queen Elizabeth II (G1) and unless she can sit a more forward trip with Flavien Prat in the irons, it is hard to see her flipping the script on her rival.

Nobody else in the field stands out on the BSF, not that is the sole metric to measure success, but #2 Hereforagoodtime for trainer Brendan Walsh. The daughter of Justify has been running in the high-70s but has shown the ability to hit the board consistently in these spots as she has finished second or third in the Regret (G3), Pucker Up (G3), and Dueling Ground Oaks (G3). She has enough early speed to sit mid-pack and should be able to handle the distance. She has been training very well for Walsh, who is always good at spotting his runners on the turf, particularly those coming out of efforts at Kentucky Downs, which is where Hereforagoodtime ran her last race. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez hops aboard and could help infuse some more speed into her during the early stages of the race to sit close to Laurelin and try to make an early run at the leader.