Jim Dandy Stakes Picks

Overview: A field of five for this year’s renewal of the Jim Dandy (G2) and while some might bemoan the field size, it is hard to argue about the quality. It also is not surprising that the connections of other horses conveniently ducked running against the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner in a Grade 2 race. However, in addition to Sovereignty, you have the rapidly improving Baeza shipping in from California and hoping to reverse recent trends where he finished third in the two legs of the Triple Crown in which he ran. Horses like Sandman and Hill Road might be challenged in this spot due to a short field and limited pace while a longer shot like Mo Plex who just recently showed the ability to get two turns while winning the Ohio Derby (G3) could very well get an easy lead up front. Saturday proves to be a fun opportunity to see Sovereignty respond with his own effort as his biggest rival won the Haskell (G1) in thrilling fashion the week before.

#5 Sovereignty – Let’s not get cute. That is my general philosophy for this race. I have tried to beat Sovereignty in all four of his races this year. While I was right with Tappan Street, betting against him as been a losing proposition and he has won his two biggest races of the year in a relatively easy fashion. Perhaps his most impressive effort was his last one at the Belmont Stakes (G1) at Saratoga where he showed a new dimension of laying close to the pace. During the Triple Crown trail, I tended to prefer Journalism as he could sit closer to the pace and would have an advantage over him around the turn and at the top of the stretch. However, my preference of Journalism only worked if he had a cushion of several lengths over Sovereignty and jockey Junior Alvarado has done such a brilliant job at riding the horse that he has negated any advantage Journalism might have on paper. In Saturday’s Jim Dandy, there is going to be minimal pace with Mo Plex likely setting the early fractions with Baeza tracking intently, but Sovereignty could be sitting as close as second or third depending on how he breaks. Alvarado has the advantage of the outside post and no matter how they enter the first turn, it feels unlikely that he will let the frontrunners get more than a couple lengths in front of him. While Sovereignty’s lone loss in 2025 came at Saturday’s distance of nine furlongs, I think that was more a symptom of him not being 100% cranked for that race and Tappan Street running a huge race as he needed it to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Remember, Sovereignty’s breakthrough victory was going 8.5 furlongs in the Street Sense (G3) in 2024 and then he overcame a short stretch, modest pace, and a speed favoring track at Gulfstream Park to win going 8.5 furlongs again in the Fountain of Youth (G2), so I do not buy the argument that he is better going longer. Shortening up from the Triple Crown trail should not be an issue.

#1 Baeza – The John Shirreffs trainee has been discussed since his debut due to his pedigree as he is out of the super broodmare Puca who foaled 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Dornoch. The only difference for Baeza is that he is sired by McKinzie as opposed to his more accomplished older brothers whose sire is Good Magic. The McKinzie offspring were solid as juveniles but have not been as effective at three as they are only 10% of their races compared to the 15%-win rate they had during their two-year-old season. Additionally, McKinzie’s win rate in dirt route races is an average 13%. With that said, Baeza has shown the ability to hang with the best horses in his crop as the only horses who beat him since January is Journalism and Sovereignty. He finished second to his fellow California-based runner in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and then ran back-to-back show efforts behind the big two in this three-year-old group in both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). He has three straight 100+ Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) efforts and should have an effective running style tracking just off the pace of Mo Plex. It is a bit curious that his jockey the last two times out, Flavien Prat, has opted to ride Hill Road, which forced Shirreffs to bring in jockey Hector Berrios who rode him effectively in his maiden-breaking score as well as his runner-up effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The two big questions for Baeza are whether he is going to have a tactical advantage over Sovereignty and if he has matured since his last time at the Spa in the beginning of June. The tactical advantage was negated last time as Sovereignty showed a new dimension with early speed and if he does the same thing again it will be hard to imagine Baeza finishing stronger than Sovereignty at the top of the stretch if they are on even terms. The second factor is a bit more subjective as it does appear that Baeza has continued to physically mature since the last time I saw him in June. Whether he has effectively closed the gap on one of the most physically impressive horses you will ever see is another matter. I think the inside rail will force Berrios to be aggressive early, which might be the best thing for his chances, but as the great Ric Flair once said, “To be the man, you gotta beat the man.” Right now, “The Man” is Sovereignty and it is hard to see anyone beating him Saturday.

#3 Mo Plex – The biggest X-factor in the race is Sandman and I could have easily put him in the third position rather than the Ohio Derby (G3) winner. Sandman is a horse that gets overbet for a variety of reasons and while he is getting blinkers added, which could improve his early position, the short field and modest pace are reasons I am skeptical of his chances to win. Meanwhile, Mo Plex is an intriguing option who is likely to be a better price and should be the horse setting modest fractions up front. The New York-bred son of Complexity had never tried two turns prior to his last effort. He is an incredibly reliable horse as he has five wins in eight starts and has never missed the board during his career. Trainer Jeremiah Englehart had kept the horse at one turn, and he showed great talent as a two-year-old when he won the Sanford (G3) in his second career start. He had shown the ability to win against open company as a three-year-old earlier this year in the Bayshore Stakes, but prior to his run in the Ohio Derby (G3), he had never won running a mile, so I was unsure he could get the nine-furlong distance. However, he stalked the early pace at Thistledown and easily took over in the stretch to win by two lengths over horses like Chunk of Gold and McAfee. The level of competition is going to be much more challenging, but pace dynamics favor him as lone speed and jockey Manny Franco hops back aboard having ridden the horse three times previously including in his victory in the Bayshore Stakes. While his sire, Complexity, has very modest stats for average winning distance of his offspring (6.2 furlongs), they do win at a 23% clip (10-43) going long on the dirt. Considering Mo Plex has the Uncle Mo influence underneath from his dam, it would seem like he can handle nine furlongs. Whether he can handle the class is another question and I have a hard time seeing him holding off my top two choice, but he is going to be much better value than Sandman and potentially Hill Road, so putting him on your vertical wagers like exactas and trifectas is a way of seeking some reasonable value if you think the race plays out to form.