Jim Dandy (G2) Picks

Pace Scenario

Do not expect much pace in Saturday’s Jim Dandy (G2) with #1 Chip Honcho being the lone speed presence in the race. However, the biggest question could be the track conditions as Saratoga received three days of steady rain from Tuesday to Thursday. While it is unlikely to be sunny on Friday or Saturday, I do expect the track to have a chance to dry out a bit. Getting back to pace, Chip Honcho should be lone speed, but the addition of blinkers to #5 Commandment could result in him being sharper early in the race and applying some mild pressure or at least being more forward. You also have #4 Silent Tactic coming back from a four-month layoff and he could be fresh during the early going. Still, you must imagine jockey Jose Ortiz will be able to click off the fractions he wants with Chip Honcho early and often.

Analysis

Everyone seems to be falling over themselves to pick Chip Honcho in this race due to the pace scenario and I get it. The horse is loose on the lead, but with so many people hopping on the Chip Honcho bandwagon, I wonder whether you end up getting the 3-1 morning line price. As a result, I’m going back to #5 Commandment (6-5) who was my Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) pick. The Brad Cox trainee remains the only horse in the field with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) from his races this spring at Gulfstream Park. He had a tough go of things in the Kentucky Derby (G1) getting bumped badly by Ocelli in the stretch but rebounded nicely to run a game second in the Belmont Stakes (G1) to Golden Tempo despite having to travel widest of the group. What I took out of both those races is that he is not a 10-furlong horse. He has a ton of class that allows him to compete, but he is best at nine furlongs, which is what he gets to do on Saturday. The addition of blinkers for the son of Into Mischief could be the key ingredient as it might allow him to be sharper early in the race or get him to be more focused in the lane when coming home. He is not a horse that “hangs,” but he is a grinder will not overwhelm you with a huge burst when passing horses. Three of his last four races are better than anything Chip Honcho has run and while he was facing Golden Tempo in the Triple Crown and beating The Puma and Chief Wallabee during the Kentucky Derby preps. Meanwhile, Chip Honcho’s best win to date was besting career maiden Ocelli in the Ohio Derby (G3) who came to finish last by 32 lengths in the Haskell (G1).

All that said about #1 Chip Honcho (3-1), I still believe he is a serious threat to wire the field due to the complete lack of another pace presence. His victory in the Ohio Derby (G3) was a solid effort over an albeit pedestrian field as he came from off the pace whereas his other victories had been either gate-to-wire or closely tracking the pace. Jockey Jose Ortiz is going to take the initiative from the rail and set the fractions he feels will work best for this son of Connect. If you want to make the case for him, it is that he has shown improvement since scratching out of the Kentucky Derby (G1) to point toward the Preakness (G1) where he finished an unthreatening third. Additionally, he has a win over a wet track in case the conditions do not improve in Saratoga. You could also make the case one of his best efforts was in the Risen Star (G2) where he was able to carve out easy fractions up front and just barely got nabbed in the final few strides by Paladin who was widely considered the top Kentucky Derby contender at the time. Oh, and the eventual Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner finished over five lengths behind him. There is a case, but I do think we could see a repeat of that Risen Star (G2) where he runs a big race but just is not quite good enough to hold off a classier colt in the final few strides. I like that trainer Steve Asmussen brought him straight to Saratoga and he got a few runs over the Oklahoma training course. It’s true this crop lacks elite early speed types apart from perhaps Napoleon Solo, so the possibility exists for horses like Chip Honcho to pick up significant placement in graded stakes races.

The horse I am least excited about in my top three is #3 Renegade (7-5) for trainer Todd Pletcher coming off a somewhat disappointing third-place effort in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Of course, he was only a neck away from winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and that was after drawing the dreaded #1 post earlier in the week. The nearly $1 million son of Into Mischief dazzled prior to that in the Arkansas Derby (G1), but it’s also fair to question who he beat that day as runner-up Silent Tactic has not been seen since and the rest of the field has not done much in the way of distinguishing themselves, except for Blackout Time’s optional claiming victory. Renegade is a deep closer in a race without much pace, and he has declining speed figures the last couple of starts. He also appears to be a horse that needs ample time between starts as he usually takes three weeks after a race to get back onto the workout tab. Perhaps the added time between starts will benefit him on Saturday though it is hard to tell with Pletcher as his horses rarely ever wow you in the mornings, but they end up in the winner’s circle in the afternoons. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. remains aboard and the good news for him as well as Commandment, is that neither will have to concern themselves with much traffic or making a wide run with the short field.