Jerome Stakes Picks

The Jerome is another step in the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby for those running. Not that #5 Mailata is a likely scratch on Saturday at trainer Butch Reid opted to start the horse at Parx on Tuesday in the Future Stars Stakes. As a result, #4 Balboa looks tough to beat for trainer Brittany Russell. The former Bob Baffert trainee made the switch to Russell’s barn two starts back and quickly picked up a stakes win at Laurel Park in the James F. Lewis III going six furlongs over a wet track. The son of Not This Time came back to run third in the Remsen (G2) last time out at Aqueduct finishing behind the impressive pair of Paladin and Renegade, each of whom have serious Kentucky Derby aspirations. Balboa ran well going nine furlongs, but I think he is best-suited for a one-turn mile, which is the configuration he gets on Saturday. The horse has good speed, an outside post position, and should be ridden aggressively by jockey Manny Franco. He will likely be a short price at post time but stands out in terms of class over the field. If you’re going to take a swing against him, I would do it with the last out maiden winner #1 Enforced Agenda for trainer George Weaver with jockey Flavien Prat up in the irons. The son of Liam’s Map won in debut going a mile over the track at Ozone Park while stalking strong fractions and finishing up well. Personally, I believe the 74 Beyer Speed Figure he was assigned feels light compared to the rest of the field as his fractional and final times going a mile dwarf those run in the Nashua Stakes earlier in November. Weaver is exceptional getting young horses to excel in big spots and Prat has been in a class of his own this winter in New York. Due to the short field, I’m not as concerned about the inside post draw in combination to the fact the horse has good early speed. Finally, #3 My World won the Nashua Stakes last time out for trainer Brad Cox as jockey Jamie Rodriguez stays in the irons for this son of Essential Quality. The horse has moved forward nicely in each start and Cox always is tough in these winter Derby preps in New York as he has such a deep roster of potential contenders spread across the country. My biggest hesitation with the horse is that I am not sure he beat much in the Nashua as runner-up Probably Dreaming finished second again in a stakes race at Laurel Park where he was the favorite and third-place finisher Day One Starter regressed badly in the Remsen (G2). There has been a next-out winner from the group in the form of Tough Guy Tony who came back to win a stakes race at Penn National. My World certainly has the class and connections to win this race, but I am skeptical of taking too short of a price.