Jerome Picks

Why Bet? We are starting off 2025 with a Kentucky Derby prep that features the half-brother (#8 McAfee) to the likely 2024 Horse of the Year, Thorpedo Anna. He is sure to gain plenty of betting interest, but I think there are some questions to answer and reasons to play against him. Whenever you think you can beat a favorite, it is always a good race to bet. Additionally, even the second and third choices in the race, while solid, are not without question, so catching a price is not out of the question. Plus, the sooner you start playing these Kentucky Derby Prep races, the better you will be at betting and handicapping them come the final round of preps in April as well as the first Saturday in May.

Pace: Expect a strong pace early as several of these horses have only demonstrated one way to win. Started toward the inside, #2 Mansetti (10/1), is coming down from Woodbine for trainer Kevin Attard and trying dirt for the first time. He is also stretching out to a new distance after winning a minor stakes race last time out. Meanwhile, #5 Georgia’s Music (10/1) is coming off a debut maiden victory that the son of Good Magic did in gate-to-wire fashion while traveling six furlongs. Finally, #6 Cyclone State (7/2) is one of the more experienced runners in the group, but like the other two early speed horses, he has never won from off the pace. He does draw well to the outside of the other speed, but he will have to pass horses for the first time on Saturday if he wants to win. You might not want to be a deep closer in this race, but there should be ample opportunity to come from a tracking spot to get the win.

#7 Studlydoright (5/2) – The son of Nyquist has two races from his seven career starts that would easily win this race in the former of the Tremont Stakes at Saratoga and the Nashua Stakes during Belmont at Aqueduct. He won both of those and was able to do so while closing and tracking the pace, respectively. He is also graded stakes placed after running second in the Sanford (G3) to Mo Plex. He flattened out last time though when trainer John Robb gave him another chance against graded stakes company in the Remsen (G2) where he finished fourth. It was a bad effort, but considering the trip and his pedigree you would have thought he’d appreciate going two turns. Perhaps he is best as a miler and now he returns to the distance and track where he scored a win two back. Robb sticks with Mid-Atlantic jockey Xavier Perez on the mount and he should appreciate the pace scenario as breaking further outside should allow him the ability to survey the field and place Studlydoright in a tracking spot just behind the early leaders. We know he can pass horses and is a proven stakes winner at the distance. Those are qualities nobody else in the field can boast and I love that Robb gave him a relaxing six-furlong work two days before Christmas to get ready for this race.

#2 Ican (8/1) – If you’re looking for a price, the son of Preservationist (who was just recently shipped to Korea to continue his siring career), could fit the bill. Ican will be the “other” Babe Dutrow entry as his stablemate McAfee is sure to grab more headlines, and betting interest, due to his snazzy pedigree. However, this horse has some interesting family lines as well. Remember that another son of Preservationist (Antiquarian) won the 2024 Peter Pan and Ican is also the half-sibling to Reasoned Analysis who won the Bayshore last year and finished fourth in the Woody Stephens (G1). Aside from pedigree, there are two main features that stand out about this runner. First, he has gotten faster in each career start, and I always like seeing horses who have yet to reach their full potential as you are likely to get a price. Last time out he finished second to #6 Cyclone State (7/2) but was able to make up ground on a runner who got an easy lead. The second thing that stands out about Ican is his ability to pass other horses. A few runners in this race need the lead, but he is not one of them. With the pace more hotly contested on Saturday, expect him to sit a tracking trip similar to last time out with the biggest difference being that he will get some more speed to run into and he will be closer to the early pace after stumbling at the start last time.

#8 McAfee (2/1) – The half-brother to likely 2024 HOTY Thorpedo Anna is going to attracted plenty of interest at the betting windows based on pedigree alone. He draws the outside and much like Studlydoright, prefers to track the pace while passing horses. He won impressively in debut against restricted MSW company at Churchill Downs where he closed from over seven lengths back to win. However, that race only yielded one next out winner who dropped all the way down to a maiden claiming $30K to win. The other two horses out of that race that eventually won also did not do so until they dropped in against maiden optional claiming company. Last time out, the son of Cloud Computing went a mile against starter allowance company and just lost to Optical. The only two horses who have come back to run since that race were the fourth- and fifth-place finishers who both finished about two lengths behind McAfee. Neither distinguished themselves as one finished fifth by 20+ lengths in the Gun Runner Stakes while the other finished a non-descript fifth against optional claiming company. The point I am getting at is that McAfee has not really beaten anyone of note. Say what you will of Studlydoright, but he has beaten multiple stakes winners throughout his career. Now, Baby Dutrow has had this one training steadily at Belmont since coming up from Churchill and is possible he shows continued improvement, but at a short price, I am willing to take a modest stand against this runner.

#6 Cyclone State (7/2) – The Iowa bred has a good name (shout out to my friend and horse lover Erin McKinley who is a proud Iowa State Cyclone) and has a good pedigree to match. He is sired by McKinzie who has been a rock solid first crop sire whose progeny appear to be getting better as they stretch out. In fact, 23% of his offspring have won dirt route races with 44% finishing in the exacta in those spots. Additionally, Cyclone State is half to Zatara who is a stakes-placed miler who runs out at Prairie Meadows. Aside from pedigree, the horse has shown ability on the track as he easily dispatched the competition last time out. However, he has only won on the lead and never passed a horse during his six-race career. Those are alarming trends considering it seems unlikely he will get the lead, and even if he does, it will not be as easily done as it was last time when he was clear of the field. There is no doubt trainer Chad Summers has a nice runner and perhaps the flip switched as he has won consecutive races coming into Saturday’s affair, but this will be a class and pace test. He has been working out beautifully and I do appreciate the five furlong bullet work leading up to this race, but it could get a little too fast for him up front and he has never had this good of a group chasing him late.