Jenny Wiley Picks

Pace: Despite several European runners coming over for the first time, the pace dynamics should be straightforward in Saturday’s Jenny Wiley (G1). Expect #7 Kehoe Beach (7/2) to set the tempo up front with jockey Frankie Dettori aboard. The four-year-old filly only knows one way to win and that is in gate-to-wire fashion, so Dettori will try to dictate the pace judiciously for a horse coming off the layoff. Meanwhile, #5 Be Your Best (6/1) will be the other main player in the early stages for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. who is 1-23 in stakes races at Keeneland over the last five years. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has some options with her but expect him to sit no worse than second. Of the Europeans, I would not be surprised to see #2 Choisya (4/1) to be more prominent in the early stages as she has flashed some useful speed in several starts in England and the UAE. Finally, #6 Jabaara (9/2) would seem like she would be close to the pace as she is stretching out from sprinting most of her career and likely has the natural speed to take her close to the front.

#6 Jabaara (9/2) – I am expecting a big effort out of trainer Roger Varian’s Godolphin filly on Saturday for a variety of reasons. Despite stretching out to a mile for only the second time, it is common to see European runners get more ground in North America because of how different the courses are on the other side of the Atlantic. In Europe most tracks have ground with undulation, which causes horses to exert more energy despite going shorter distances. In North America, the turf courses are flat and manicured, which makes it easier for European horses to get a little more distance. As for this daughter of Exceed and Excel, her 2024 campaign was splendid with victories in two stakes races and she crossed the wire first in another but was disqualified to second in the Oak Hill (G3) where she bested superstar filly Raqiya who came over to North America in her next start and won the Goldikova (G3) at Del Mar. She went to the bench from July 2024 until March 2025 when she returned to run fourth in the Lady Wulfruna over the all-weather surface at Wolverhampton. It was a fine effort for a horse coming off the bench, but I love that she got a freshening before coming over here and the fact Varian is stepping her up into these depths should be viewed positively. Perhaps the biggest plus for her is the fact she ran second to Porta Fortuna last year in the Falmouth (G1) at New Market as Porta Fortuna was one of the best runners in all of Europe last year. Expect jockey Joel Rosario to let this filly use some of her natural speed coming out of the gate and get her over toward the rail as European runners tend to prefer to be covered up on the inside. Rosario is a master on the turf and if he can ensure she does not have much to do come the top of the stretch, I like her chances to kick for home at a little bit of a price.

#2 Choisya (4/1) – Another European invader who has recently moved to the Middle East looks very tough in this spot as trainer Simon Crisford’s daughter of Night of Thunder will have no problem handling the distance. She also comes into the race with good recent form having taken a pair of Grade 2s to kick off her 2025 campaign in the United Arab Emirates. Her last victory in the Balanchine (G2) was particularly impressive given that she held off Cinderella’s Dream, who was the best three-year-old turf filly I saw last year. The cutback to her traditional mile distance should be perfect on Saturday and she picks up jockey Luis Saez on the mount. Saez was involved in a nasty spill on Tuesday at Keeneland as the horse threw him in the stretch, but amazingly, he was able to return to racing just a couple days later. If he is fully healthy, he should give this one a strong ride. She has a versatile running style as she has gone to the lead, tracked the pace, and come from further back in various starts. It is promising to see that she has handled firmer ground in recent starts, though the turf is likely to be rated “good” on Saturday at Keeneland. That said, “good” in North America is often quite a bit firmer than “good” in Europe. The five-year-old mare has never faced Group 1 competition overseas, but it appears as she is coming into her best form, which is not surprising as female turf horses often hit the peak in their five-year-old season. Given some of the questions about the other runners regarding pace, distance, and class, I tend to lean toward European runners in this race, particularly if you can get anywhere near 4/1.

#1 Excellent Truth (5/2) – The Chad Brown trainee is making her first start in North America and her last effort justifies her favoritism as she finished second in the Rothschild (G1) in Deauville last July. However, she is making her first start in nine months and, as of late, some of Brown’s runners have not fired off the bench as effectively as we are accustomed to seeing from his barn. We have seen disappointing efforts from Chancer McPatrick, Sierra Leone, and General Partner (all dirt horses) as well as Spaliday and Redistricting (turf horses). Certainly, you still see horses like Running Bee and Saffron Moon do well off the bench, albeit with significantly shorter layoffs. Over the last five years, Brown has been very good during the Keeneland Spring Meet winning 21% of turf route graded stakes races and that number might not give the full scope of how good he is as he often as multiple runners in each race. As for Excellent Truth, she has had five recorded workouts in North America, which feels a little light for going into a Grade 1 field, but every horse is different and this field lacks a true monster, so she could prove to be the best. She can handle different types of going and has run a few different winning trips, which is great to see given the potential track conditions and pace dynamics. She picks up jockey Flavien Prat who is winning 22% of his mounts during this spring meet. She should be able to save ground and be covered up most of the trip, which is beneficial, but whether she can fire off the bench is a question mark as she has never won off a layoff before and her TimeForm rating numbers are not discernably different from Choisya.

#9 No Show Sammy Jo (15/1) – I could write about #5 Be Your Best, who I have always liked going back to his time in the barn of Horacio De Paz. The horse has found improved form under the watchful eye of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., but I simply cannot trust Saffie’s horse in Kentucky where he is 2-84 over the last five years in stakes races while being 1-23 in those contests specifically at Keeneland. However, I’d rather focus on a big price in trainer Graham Motion’s daughter of Lope de Vega who reeled off four straight wins before losing by a nose in the Long Island (G3) back in November to the aforementioned Be Your Best. Motion is bringing this one off the bench for the first time since November but has been steadily working her down in South Florida with some sharp workouts including a 59.1 second five-furlong work over the grass at Palm Meadows. The five-year-old mare is lightly raced having only run six times, but she has never regressed from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint and has repeatedly fired off the bench with victories the two other times she had time away from the track. Jockey Manny Franco takes the mount, and Manny already scored a nice victory for Motion during the first week of the Keeneland meet with Test Score, so this combo is ready to win. It will be interesting to see the kind of trip she sits, and I like the outside post as Franco and survey the field going into the first turn to see who is going and who is taking back. She has decent speed, but typically sits mid-pack, though she can sit further back if it helps her save ground. Either way, she is a tempting price at 15/1 for a horse that is ascending and is proven off the layoff.