Iroquois Stakes Picks

Analysis: The Road to the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1) begins this weekend under the twin spires of Churchill Downs with the Iroquois Stakes (G3), which is the first official Derby Prep race as the winner will earn 10 points toward next year’s starting gate. Traditionally, the Iroquois (G3) winner is not the best predictor of future success though two years ago we saw the horse West Saratoga win this race and end up running for the roses on the First Saturday of May. However, last year’s race shows why you want to pay attention on Saturday as Sandman, Owen Almighty, and Magnitude all came out of that race to be significant forces during the Derby Trail and beyond.

This year, #7 Comport (6/5) stands over the field as he has won two of three starts with his only loss being a runner-up finish in the other, which was the Bashford Manor Stakes. He won at Churchill Downs in debut and bested his top rival, #5 Spice Runner (7/2), last time out in the Juvenile Stakes at Ellis Park going seven furlongs. What makes his last performance so impressive is that he stalked the pace of Spiced Runner before drawing away from him while going seven furlongs. Now the field stretches out to a one-turn mile and Comport should again get a comfortable trip sitting off the early pace while going even longer against a foe who could not sustain his run at seven furlongs. The Eddie Kenneally trainee does not have an overwhelming pedigree as he is sired by Collected and his dam has only produced one other foal, El Prestigio, who was a career maiden. However, El Prestigio could do some running as he finished second to highly regarded runners such as Ferocious, Donut God, and Brodeur during his career. Comport as improved his Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) in each start as he has stretched out each time. Kenneally has gotten in nice series of workouts from him ahead of Saturday’s race and he will be a tough favorite to beat.

I typically like trying to find a price underneath if I think the favorite has a good chance of winning and #1 Nothing Personal (8/1) provides some intriguing value. The Greg Compton runner is sired by Violence and sold for $270,000 at a two-year-old the May 2025 OBS. The horse showed plenty of promise going seven furlongs in debut at Colonial Downs as he patiently tracked the pace before leaving the rest of the nine-horse field in the dust as he won by 8 ¾ lengths. The runner-up, Antrax, came back to win his next start and improved his BSF by 10 points. As for Nothing Personal, he was assigned a 76 BSF for his debut effort, which puts him right there with the other top contenders. The inside rail might provide some issues, but the horse has shown good speed and if he breaks cleanly, he could represent solid early speed to contend with Spice Runner.

Speaking of #5 Spice Runner (7/2), the full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Gunite, is trained by Steve Asmussen and gets jockey Jose Ortiz back aboard after losing to Comport in his last effort. There is plenty to like about this horse as he also won at Churchill Downs in debut but faded badly in his next start going six furlongs in the Bashford Manor Stakes. Last time out, jockey Keith Asmussen was able to divvy out reasonable fractions up front but ultimately succumbed to Comport late. While it was an improved effort that resulted in a 75 BSF, it is a bit discouraging to see that he faded going a shorter distance and now he will have to stretch out to a mile. Additionally, while he boasts an impressive pedigree, it is important to remember that his big brother was 0-3 at a mile including when he went off as the 1/4 favorite in the Parx Dirt Mile in his second-to-last start. Finally, Asmussen is only 3-39 (8%) in juvenile stakes races at Churchill Downs over the last five years including being 0-20 in those at a mile or longer.

The final price I will mention is #9 Nine Ball (12/1) for trainer Riley Mott. The son of Code of Honor was a modest $20,000 purchase as a yearling last year but showed some talent in debut coming from off the pace to win at Ellis Park. He has more sprint influence underneath with Henny Hughes being his dam’s sire, but he is the half-brother to Bethlehem Road who won his first three starts including the Parx Spring Derby going a mile and 70 yards. The ability to come from off the pace is a critical one with young horses as many of them prefer to do their running up front, but as races stretch out, they can wear each other out on the front end, which would open things up for a horse like Nine Ball to pick up the pieces late.