Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Belmont at the Big A

Track: Belmont at the Big A

Race 5: $50K claimer going 7 furlongs on dirt for 3+

Post Time: 3:06 PM ET

Horse: #6 Very Stormy (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1 or higher.

Having a horse coming off a long layoff can sometimes be a red flag, but it can also give you a chance to get some value. In the case of Very Stormy, I think his landing spot off the bench makes a lot of sense with a bit of a class drop for trainer Bruce Levine. The five-year-old gelding by Central Banker was coming along well last year as he improved in each of his first three starts culminating in him breaking his maiden against state-bred company at Saratoga in a race that produced two next out winners. His first run against fellow winners was a solid fourth against NY-bred allowance company, but things fell off in his next two starts. The horse had issues at the start in both races and in his November start he switched over to the turf, which was a non-starter. He has been on the bench since and I think the rest has done him well and Levine has been bringing him back for a while to get him ready for this spot. He is dropping in class down to claiming company, but the $50,000 tag is not a significant drop that would cause anyone to raise an eyebrow. Over the last five years, Levine has been 20% winning when dropping horses from allowance to claiming company, so there is every reason to expect the horse is placed well to succeed. Jockey Javier Castellano is up again, and the key will be to make sure he gets the horse settled into a tracking trip behind the pace. The seven furlongs should not be a problem, and this one should be able to win this race if he runs back to those efforts over the summer in Saratoga. At an 8/1 morning line price, he presents great value in a field where several other runners have questions at a shorter price.