Longshot of the Day: Race 10 Churchill Downs

Track: Churchill Downs

Race 10: $125K optional claimer going 6 ½ furlongs on dirt for 3YO

Post Time: 10:42 PM ET

Horse: #5 Keewaydin (12/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1 or higher.

I vividly remember Keewaydin’s maiden race as he was closing like a rocket ship to finish third to future G1-placed Tip Top Thomas and future two-time winner Rookie Card. The horse that finished fourth that day was none other than Sovereignty who, of course, has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1). Talk about a productive race. Based off that impressive effort, the son of Instagrand went off as the 1/5 favorite next time out and won going seven furlongs. Previous trainer Chad Brown decided to stretch him out in the Remsen (G2), but it was not surprising that his pedigree failed him going nine furlongs as he finished a distant fifth. He went to the bench for over five months and came back in an optional claimer going a one-turn mile at Aqueduct where he finished third against older horses. Following that effort, the decision was made to transfer the once promising prospect to trainer Will Walden, which is a decision I love. Walden is outstanding in getting horses to move forward off the trainer change. Over the past year he has been winning at a 27% clip in those spots, and he is making two other critical changes. First, he is adding blinkers, which I feel will help this horse focus a bit more and stay on more effectively later in the stretch. He already has outstanding speed, so I doubt it will make too much of a difference out of the gate. The second change is that he is cutting the horse back to 6 ½ furlongs. Instagrand is a purely sprint influence as his offspring have an average winning distance of 6.2 furlongs. They win dirt sprints at a 16% rate as opposed to a 12% rate in dirt routes. Getting Keewaydin back to sprinting is where he can be most effective whether he is on the lead or tracking from just off the pace. There is no doubt this is a salty field, but I will gladly take anywhere near 12/1 on a horse that has shown great form sprinting and is getting in a barn that is outstanding with reclamation projects.