Longshot of the Day: Race 4 at Horseshoe Indianapolis
Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis
Race 4: $46K allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+
Post Time: 3:43 PM ET
Horse: #3 Bajan Sun (6/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.
I do not often go back to the well with a longshot of the day selection I used in the past, but I remember when Bajan Sun debuted at Horseshoe Indianapolis back in April and I was salivating at the morning line as the horse came from a family of first-out winners. Sadly, we never got anywhere near the morning line price but he ended up winning for fun (eight lengths) as the even money favorite. Trainer Joseph Davis has been patient with the horse since that impressive debut score but brings him back here against solid allowance company, which is encouraging considering it took until the horse was five years old to debut, so the fact he is stringing together starts is a good sign. He has been putting in impressive workouts in the mornings leading up to Tuesday’s race and jockey Fernando De La Cruz, who is winning at a 20% clip, hops aboard. The key to the entire race will be the break as Bajan Sun has outstanding early speed and if he is able to get clear like he did in debut, he should have no problem wiring the field. His biggest obstacle will be #7 Sound Doctrine (6/1) further outside who also has great early speed and could apply pressure, but it feels unlikely that he would be able to cross in front of Bajan Sun. Sound Doctrine is stepping up from the claiming ranks and when he has run against allowance company in the past, his speed either is not good enough to get to the front, or he fades quickly. In either case, I think it allows Bajan Sun to be inside controlling speed on the rail, and he should be able to stay clear. Betting on last out maiden winners who are five-years-old and facing winners for the first time is always a risk, but unlike in his debut, I think you will actually be able to get a price on Bajan Sun today, which is always a good bet as he is speed of the speed and is coming in off a strong series of workouts.