Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Churchill Downs
Track: Churchill Downs
Race 8: $125K optional claimer going 1 1/16 miles on turf for 3YO
Post Time: 4:22 PM ET
Horse: #6 Thermoscat (15/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 20/1 or higher.
There are quite a few 6/1 and 8/1 horses running earlier in the card at Churchill Downs that intrigue me, particularly in some of the maiden special weight races, but I ultimately kept coming back to Thermoscat as a horse that I think will massively outrun his 15/1 morning line odds. The son of Star Guitar last effort was so bad that it must be ignored as it was an off-turf race in which he got checked and lost position before shutting it down in the final stretch. He has lost his two dirt efforts by a combined 77 lengths, so let’s just assume he’s not a dirt horse and ignore those. His turf efforts, particularly his two more recent, give you cause for optimism as he started running on the lead to much better results. On January 20th at Fair Grounds, he got second at odds of 99/1 to Reagan’s Wit, who went on to run second in the Columbia Stakes next time out and fourth in the Transylvania (G3) last month at Keeneland. Meanwhile, Thermoscat broke his maiden next time out and showed a lot of grit doing so as he went to the lead and was headed by rival Lebowski, but he fought back inside and won while earning a 71 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), which is not far off some of the top contenders. For instance, #7 Enterdadragon (3/1) has a career-best 76 BSF, so it is not as if Thermoscat is hopelessly out of reach. Trainer Shane Wilson has been working this horse nicely at Louisiana Downs where he has recorded a pair of bullets leading up to today’s race and should be your easy leader going into the first turn. I am bullish about him winning today? Not really. But is he a horse I would use in my deeper verticals at a big price? Absolutely. He is going to be a big price, and people will see that last effort and completely toss him, but I think he is worth a second look and could really surprise this field if he can get comfortable on the front end under the ride of Martin Garcia.