Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Churchill Downs
Track: Churchill Downs
Race 7: $127K allowance going 1 mile on turf for 3+
Post Time: 4:03 PM ET
Horse: #2 Mega Magic (20/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 15/1 or higher.
Throwing a bomb downfield today in a turf allowance race with a massive longshot who might appreciate going longer. As helpful as speed figures can be, sometimes you must look past the numbers to find a longshot. Often if you follow the best figures you end up picking the top choices who are coming into the race in the best form. In the case of Mega Magic, there is some projection, but I think he could be sitting on a nice effort. Is he a win candidate? At a certain price, yes. Is he a horse I would include in my vertical wagers? Absolutely. The Al Stall Jr. trainee broke his maiden in debut sprinting 5 ½ furlongs on the turf at Fair Grounds and did so from the outside post position, which can be a blessing and curse for first-time starters. It’s a great post position for sprints, but often young horses break out toward open space and can give up significant ground by running outward rather than straight. Mega Magic experienced no such issue in a very professional debut. His second race was another turf sprint at Fair Grounds where he was again drawn to the outside and sitting more mid-pack. While he faded back in terms of lengths beaten, he finished third in a nine-horse field with the winner easily getting the job done by 6+ lengths. The runner-up in that race, Bridle a Butterfly, came back to win a turf stakes race at Churchill Downs yesterday. Today he is stretching out for the first time and going a mile at Churchill Downs. From a pedigree standpoint, he should appreciate going a little longer. He is by Good Magic who is not a particularly good turf sprint sire. In fact, Mega Magic was only the sixth turf sprint winner Good Magic has produced in 115 starts. While Good Magic’s offspring are better on the dirt, his sire numbers do improve once his progeny start stretching out on the grass as they win at a 10% clip compared to the 5% of turf sprint runners. On the dam side, Mega Magic is out of a Malibu Moon mare who was stakes placed going 6 ½ furlongs at Kentucky Downs, which is nearly the same as going a mile due to the undulating nature of that turf course. The dam, Magical Moon, has also produced turf route winners and the second dam, Lady Dora, was a Grade 3 winner going nine furlongs on the turf. Mega Magic should have good early speed and will be sitting forward during the early stages of the race. He picks up Brian Hernandez Jr. for the mount and look for him to get to the rail and save ground that should assist the horse stretching out. He will need to get faster on the figures, but I think there is reason to believe he could take a step forward in his third start.