Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Churchill Downs
Track: Churchill Downs
Race 7: $92K MSW going 1 ¼ miles on dirt for 3+ restricted fillies & mares
Post Time: 8:37 PM ET
Horse: #1 Antonia’s Flowers (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1 or higher.
The eyes of the horse racing world will be on Churchill Downs next Friday and Saturday as the historic track hosts the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. However, I love to play Churchill Downs in the week leading up to the races to see how the track is playing and whether certain jockeys seem to be riding particularly well. On their Opening Night card there is always one race that every handicapper looks forward to watching, which is the 1 ¼ mile maiden race. Why? Because it will be the first opportunity to see how the track plays in a 10-furlong race, which is the same distance as next Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Tonight, I will take a swing with Antonia’s Flowers who is making the transition from synthetic to dirt after running seventh in debut at Turfway Park last month. The dirt at Churchill Downs has always been a kind surface to horses who have previously run on turf or synthetic as we have seen runners out of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (Rich Strike and Two Phil’s) run well in the Kentucky Derby. The track has taken some moisture the last few days, which should be no problem for this daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah as she turned in a strong 48.1 second four-furlong bullet work over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs back on April 11. Jockey Luis Saez is up on the mount today and is coming off a fantastic Keeneland Spring Meet, so it is always good to see a hot hand take over the ride. Meanwhile, trainer Joe Sharp is winning at a 27% clip in 2025 and is typically good at getting horses spotted in the right place in their second start winning 15% second start MSW races over the last five years, which is in juxtaposition to his 8%-win rate of horses winning MSW races in debut during that same time. The workouts coming out of that maiden race are solid with a trainer and jockey who have been winning quite a bit recently.