Longshot of the Day: Race 4 at Keeneland

Track: Keeneland

Race 4: $120K allowance going 1 3/16 miles on turf for 3YO

Post Time: 2:36 PM ET

Horse: #4 King of Ashes (10/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1 or higher.

I have a lot of respect for morning line favorite #8 Early Adopter (3/1) for trainer Chad Brown who is dropping down from stakes company, getting Lasix for the first time, and getting his blinkers taken off. However, it is at least a little interesting that Flavien Prat, who rode the horse two starts back, opts to ride #1 Earned Not Given (6/1) for Mark Glatt. That horse will be on my Late P5 ticket but is not my longshot of the day. Rather, I give a nod to King of Ashes for trainer Brendan Walsh who has been winning at a 31% clip during the Keeneland Spring Meet. The son of Street Sense started his career on the dirt before switching to synthetic at Turfway Park in November. He broke his maiden in his third start while earning a 74 Beyer Speed Figure, which corresponds with him switching onto Lasix for the first time. Based off the maiden-breaking score, Walsh stepping the horse up to run in the Kentucky Derby prep John Battaglia Memorial where he was a non-factor. The horse has been on the bench since late February but has been working regularly and turning in crisp drills at Keeneland for the white-hot trainer. A great deal of my optimism about King of Ashes is the timing of his development and his pedigree as he feels like a horse that matured just a bit too late to make his debut on turf and had to be run on synthetic to start his career. However, when you look at his dam (Causeforcommotion), it screams turf as she was a graded stakes winning turf marathoner. Street Sense has always been a versatile sire and that combination, along with Walsh’s acumen on the turf, would make me think that this horse’s future was always on the grass, but his late season debut forced his hand to run him on synthetic. With two months of preparation since his last race, I expect this horse to show a big perk up on the new surface. Walsh is winning at a 17% rate over the last five years transitioning horses from synthetic to turf and this seems like a prime candidate to move forward.