Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Keeneland

Track: Keeneland

Race 8: $140K allowance going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf for 4+

Post Time: 4:44 PM ET

Horse: #8 American Monarch (12/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 7/1 or higher.

Morning line favorite, #4 Big Invasion (5/2), scratched out of this race, so expect there to be some movement from the morning line prices. However, I would still expect for you to get an honest price on American Monarch for trainer Bill Mott. The son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah has limited turf experience but has generally run well hitting the board in two renewals of the Elusive Quality Stakes. Outside of his first three career starts, all of which were on the turf, he has only had three subsequent races on the grass out of her 12 contests. After running fifth in a stakes race on the dirt at Delaware Park, Mott put the seven-year-old ridgling on the bench from July until March when he returned in a turf stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs. He did not run particularly well, finishing eighth in a 10-horse field, but the reason I am optimistic you will see a better run is in his past performances. He came back from a lengthy layoff in 2023 and ran poorly in his first race off the bench but took a significant step forward in his second start. I anticipate a similar move forward today for Mott, who is excellent with runners second off the layoff. Additionally, Mott has gotten this horse four more official workouts ahead of Friday’s content including a pair of bullets down at Payson Park. I think this horse will be significantly fitter today and should move forward at a big price. With the scratch of the favorite and so many horses coming back from layoffs of their own, I think American Monarch has a chance to steal the race at a price as a runner who is going to be in better condition and has shown stakes-level talent in the past.