Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Keeneland
Track: Keeneland
Race 5: $110K MSW going 5 ½ furlongs on turf for 3+ fillies and mares
Post Time: 3:08 PM ET
Horse: #10 Magic Escapade (6/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 9/2 or higher.
A large and competitive field in this maiden turf sprint to kick off the week at Keeneland. It is sometimes difficult to get a sense of where the public money will go in a maiden race, but Magic Escapade is likely to draw some interest and could move down a bit from her 6/1 morning line value. That said, there is still a price at which I would be interested in playing her as she exhibits some positive attributes for a promising debut. As I wrote yesterday, dam side pedigree is always an important characteristic in first out starters and Magic Escapade passes there as her dam (Don’t Leave Me) has produced one raced foal who finished second in debut on the turf and then won her next start over the synthetic. It is promising to see that the horse showed promise early in her racing career and that her half-sister could do the same today. Magic Escapade’s sire, Medaglia d’Oro has always been a solid first-out influence and most promisingly, his numbers do not fall off for his offspring who debut at three and up as they do with many sires. Over the course of his stallion career, he has produced 14% turf sprint winners, which is better than you might imagine for a sire whose offspring are often running in Triple Crown and classic dirt races. Trainer Tom Drury Jr. is the real reason this four-year-old filly gets put over the top as the former $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Keeneland October sales graduate has been working lights out leading up to hear debut. She has recorded five consecutive bullet works dating back to March 5 over both the synthetic at Turfway Park and the dirt at Churchill Downs. I love seeing the 36.1 second bullet gate work leading up to the race as getting out of the gate is critical in these maiden turf sprints and she draws well to the outside so that jockey Luis Saez can judge the early pace scenario. Drury and Saez do not team up often, but they are profitable when they do win at a 33% clip over the last year with a $3.20 ROI. Finally, Drury Jr. is one of the better trainers at getting horses ready first-time out and clearly has this one cranked for a promising start.