Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Horseshoe Indianapolis

Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis

Race 5: $12,500 maiden claimer going 5 ½ furlongs on dirt for 3+

Post Time: 4:14 PM ET

Horse: #2 Bajan Sun (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 4/1 or higher.

It is Opening Day at Horseshoe Indianapolis, so let’s head there for our Longshot of the Day. Bajan Sun seems to offer outstanding value on the morning line, though I suspect this horse will take quite a bit of money once betting starts. That said, there is still a price at which I like this horse and think he will run a great race in debut. The first thing I look at when I see a horse making a debut is their pedigree for first-out success. Often that starts with seeing whether the dam has produced any other raced foals and how they did in their debut efforts. In the case of Bajan Sun, his dam (Hunter Grace) has had two raced foals and both have won in debut with one of them winning in a $25K maiden claimer at Tampa Bay Downs and the other winning in a $40K maiden claimer at Gulfstream Park. What is even more promising is both raced foals are full siblings to Bajan Sun, so you know there is plenty of precocity for first-out success. On the track, he has been working out as if he is going to fire a big effort in debut as he had a blistering 58 second five-furlong work on March 29 that was first of 30. He has not worked since, which is a bit of a red flag, along with the fact his workout routine has been irregular leading up to debut, which could keep his price higher. Trainer Joseph Davis is not known for getting horses ready first time out as he is only 8% over the last five years with debut runners and only 1-10 (10%) with those making their debut in maiden claiming races during that time. However, in a field where most of the runners have had multiple bites at the apple at this level, I will also lean toward betting a fresh face, particularly one that is an attractive price on the morning line and has plenty of pedigree to suggest debut success.