Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Keeneland
Track: Keeneland
Race 7: $300,000 Limestone Stakes going 5 ½ furlongs on turf for 3YO fillies
Post Time: 4 :12 PM ET
Horse: #12 Kilwin (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.
The Limestone Stakes is a stacked field that features some very nice runners, but I always try to find prices in turf sprints as those races can produce unexpected winners since so much depends upon how horses break out of the starting gate. I will take a swing with Kilwin today who is coming off the bench having last run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). The Rusty Arnold trainee has been working steadily since early February for her return, so her conditioning should be excellent for Friday’s contest. The daughter of Twirling Candy out of a Blame mare has outstanding pedigree and showed tremendous promise to start her career with consecutive victories sprinting on the grass. She debuted at Ellis Park as she tracked the pace before pulling off to an easy 2+ length victory over three next out winners including Vixen who would eventually go on to win the Sweetest Chant and the Herecomesthebride (G3) as a three-year-old. In fact, all but one of the nine horses from that maiden race have gone on to be winners. In her second start Kilwin went to Kentucky Downs and won the Untapable Stakes in thrilling fashion as she closed from the back of the field going 6 ½ furlongs over the undulating turf course that can be tricky for any horse to master. Based off that effort, Arnold stepped her up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) where she stalked the early pace before fading late to finish fifth. She has not run since and is making her 2025 debut on Friday, but there is plenty to like. The cutback should be ideal as she appears to be a top-class turf sprinter for her generation and she already has a victory at today’s distance. I also love the outside post as jockey Luis Saez can survey the early pace scenario and decide where to slot her in given her versatile running style. I also like the outside post as she will be clear of much of the traffic, which should ensure a cleaner break. Arnold is not always known for getting horses cranked up off the layoff, but it is promising that she won in debut as he is only an 8% trainer in debut MSW races over the last five years, so this filly has already shown she can fire fresh. Horses like #11 Me Governor (6/1) and #11 Laurice (8/1) are also good value in a field that could produce an upset winner.