Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Tampa Bay Downs
Track: Tampa Bay Downs
Race 7: $25K claimer going 1 1/16 miles on turf for 3+
Post Time: 3:45 PM ET
Horse: #2 Tarhe (12/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 10/1 or higher.
Oftentimes low percentage connections can lead to a horse being undervalued by bettors, which I believe will be the case with Tarhe. Trainer Matthew Kintz is 1-21 (5%) during the Tampa Bay Downs meet and is just 1-18 (6%) to start the year. The horse is also losing jockey Sammy Camacho who is winning at a 21% clip at Tampa Bay Downs and picking up Israel Rodriguez on the mount who is only a 14% winning rider and who has only gotten a quarter of mounts this meet that Camacho has had. However, if you look past that, there are some things to like with a horse that seems to be undervalued on the morning line. The son of Constitution came back from an 11-month layoff last time out when he ran fourth at this level against two of today’s top competitors. He finished less than a length off #6 Maximatch (5/1) and was two lengths behind the morning line favorite #5 Noble Factor (5/2). Tarhe had some trouble at the start where he was keen to go after being on the bench for so many months but was checked and taken back by Camacho. The horse was tugging a bit going into the first turn but eventually settled into a nice trip sitting mid-pack and then making an inside move around the turf. While he flattened out a bit in the stretch, he kept on and was engaged with the top group through the wire. It was the sort of effort that makes you believe the horse can move forward in his second start off such a significant layoff. He earned a career-best 70 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF), which is an angle I always like to play when a horse is coming back from such a long layoff as there is often another level the horse has yet to reach and it could speak to the fact the horse just developed into a better version of himself during the long layoff. He showed enough speed in his last effort that he should sit a mid-pack trip on the rail and unlike last time, he should have the added foundation to have a kick in that last furlong.