Longshot of the Day: Race 6 at Mahoning Valley

Track: Mahoning Valley

Race 6: $7,500 claimer going 1 mile on dirt for 3+

Post Time: 3:25 PM ET

Horse: #4 Tiz Speedy (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1.

In a stunning turn of events, it is a beautiful day at Mahoning Valley, which might be more reliable than Punxsutawney Phil when predicting when spring is in the air. When it stops raining at Mahoning, spring is right around the corner!

Due to the lovely weather, I am going to be using a horse that does his best running on a fast track and that is Tiz Speedy. The five-year-old gelded son of Tiznow has run at this same N4L condition level the last two times out at Mahoning Valley, but both of those efforts were over a muddy sealed track, and he clearly did not take to the conditions. However, his effort 10 days ago was promising as it was coming off of a three-month break for high-percentage trainer Jay Bernardini and the horse got off to a slow start but made up significant ground late to finish a competitive fourth after lagging 12 lengths back in the early stages. The key will be for jockey Erik Barbaran to get the horse out of the gate effectively. When he has won in the past, it has often been when he is sitting more of a mid-pack trip rather than relying upon a deep closing kick. The fact Bernardini is bringing the horse back on 10-days rest is promising as he is a 25% trainer when returning horses from short 8-12-day layoffs over the last five years with 187 starters in that sample size. It feels like Tiz Speedy might have needed that first race off the bench and will fire more effectively in his second start with a quick turnaround. Bernardini is a 29% trainer at Mahoning Valley and Barbaran is winning 27% of his mounts. This team is about as reliable as they come at Mahoning Valley, so you feel a little more confident taking a shot at a price with these connections. If the horse can even make a modest improvement from his 59 Beyer Speed Figure last time out, then he has an excellent chance to end up in the winner’s circle. The other reason I am looking at this race for a longshot is that I am not sold on favorite #7 Hitsville (8/5) who is going out for trainer Ricardo Bailey who is winning at a 3% clip this meet at Mahoning Valley and the horse has not won since May at Thistledown and appears to be on a downward trajectory with multiple recent class drops not equating to a win.