Longshot of the Day: Race 6 at Fair Grounds
Track: Fair Grounds
Race 6: $50K OC going 1 mile on turf for 3YO fillies
Post Time: 3:50 PM ET
Horse: #1 Good Temper (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1.
Happy Fat Tuesday and in honor of the Mardi Gras celebration, we’ll head down to The Big Easy and Fair Grounds for my daily longshot. Good Temper offers nice value in a wide-open turf race in a content in which the favorites are hardly overwhelming or will need to overcome some difficult post positions. The Will Walden trainee broke her maiden on the dirt at Keeneland in October of last year in her second career start. She went straight to the front and never looked back. However, in her debut race, she showed the ability to pass horses as she had a poor start and swallowed up over half the field on the way to a fourth-place finish. After her maiden breaker in October, she went to the bench for nearly four months before returning on the turf at this level on February 7. She had a fine trip that day under the guidance of Jareth Loveberry, but was no match for the odds-on favorite, Fionn, who won easily as Good Temper finished fourth. However, it was an encouraging effort given the layoff and new surface. She also got Lasix for the first time, which is an interesting move for Walden. Over the last five years, he is only 13% (4-31) when his horses get Lasix for the first time, however, he is an impressive 29% (7-24) when his runners keep Lasix for the second time. There is plenty of pedigree to suggest this filly will continue to appreciate the turf as well since her dam (Rachel Wall) was a stakes-placed turf router by Blame. I also love seeing Blame as a broodmare sire as his female offspring have gone on to be highly effective producers. There is also plenty of turf influence up top with Collected who is by City Zip out of a British-bred mare with loads of turf pedigree. Finally, Walden is taking the blinkers off this filly and I like that move since she’s shown the ability to pass and the blinkers off might help this horse relax a bit more as she runs. We just saw a horse, Drexel Hill, benefit from the blinkers coming off last weekend in the Busher Invitational on her way to the Kentucky Oaks, so it’s an effective handicapping angle on the right runners. The 8/1 morning line is a fair price and even if she takes a little money, she’ll still be good value as a win candidate.