Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Aqueduct
Track: Aqueduct
Race 5: $74K MSW going 1 mile for 3YO New York-breds
Post Time: 3:03 PM ET
Horse: #3 Dr. Barry (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 9/2.
Horses coming down from Finger Lakes to the Big A can often present good value as they are overlooked by handicappers as coming from a “lesser” track. I am hoping that is the case on Sunday with Dr. Barry who I think presents good value on the morning line price of 8/1 for new trainer Horacio De Paz. The son of Blame debuted in November at Finger Lakes and broke two lengths slow while sitting 16 lengths behind the leaders at one point. Most horses, particularly those debuting, would easily have given up, yet this horse ran on and finished second by 6 ½ lengths, which should some real determination. In his next start, nine days later, he stretched out from six furlongs to over a mile and the same thing happened as he broke at the back of the field and spotted the leaders 16 lengths before making another furious run to finish third by four lengths. After those two efforts, he was transferred to the barn of Horacio De Paz who is a trainer for whom I have a lot of respect and who is having a nice winter Aqueduct meet winning 20% of his entries and hitting the board at a 47% clip. The horse has been working slow under the watchful eye of De Paz during that time but appears to be in good condition coming into the race on Sunday and there are two key additions being made. First, he is getting Lasix for the first time and the other is that he is getting blinkers added. The blinkers move is critical as the horse must give himself less to do at the top of the stretch. While there is not much speed signed on for Sunday’s contest, he should be sitting a little closer to the pace and we know he has a strong late kick to start tracking horses down in the stretch. I love the one-turn mile configuration on this horse as it is often easier to close from off the pace in these types of races since the earlier fractions are faster than we see in two-turn mile races. I can understand the support for #6 Outsource (9/5), but I think Dr. Barry represents a good chance to upset the field while moving forward with a new barn and the equipment changes. At the very least, he is a horse you MUST include in your vertical wagers as you know he is going to come running late to pick up the pieces.