Longshot of the Day: Race 1 at Oaklawn Park
Track: Oaklawn Park
Race 1: $110K MSW going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+ fillies and mares
Post Time: 1:25 PM ET
Horse: #2 Leilauni Sue (8/1 morning line) use as a win bet at 6/1.
When a barn gets cold, sometimes one big win can wake it back up. That’s what I am hoping happens for trainer John Ortiz who has been 0-59 in 2025 until the barn scored a massive upset victory in last weekend’s Honeybee (G3) with Quietside. I am hoping the good vibes of treating backside workers to Sunday morning breakfast carries over to Leilauni Sue. The daughter of Girvin has run respectably the first two times out while showing the ability to pass horses. Ortiz adds blinkers, which should help her get into a more forward position early in the race. She has often given herself too much to do and by adding blinkers you can expect that she will be more involved earlier. While she lost to a pair of fellow runners on Saturday in her last race, those two are much shorter prices and have some red flags. In the case of #3 Stipulate (8/5) while the horse was second-best to a runaway winner last time out, she has also gotten progressive slower in each start since making her debut. Meanwhile, #7 Big Bang Fury (9/2) only finished a length ahead and is becoming an impossible horse to bet as she is 0-8 with seven third-place finishes. Meanwhile, Leilauni Sue is only going into her third race and with the equipment change you can expect to see continued development. Additionally, the horse has been working out the best of her career since exiting her last effort recording a pair of impressive four-furlong works one of which went the distance is 48.1 seconds that was third of 98 and the final tune-up before Saturday went by in 47.4 seconds which was fifth of 109. If you look at the racing form, you might see some pretty negative stats for Ortiz as it pertains to blinkers being added, however, context is necessary. Indeed, over the last five years, he is only 3-45 (7%) when adding blinkers for the first time in maiden special weight races. That said, his win percentage doubles to 14% when controlling for dirt sprints, which is the distance and surface of Saturday’s race. Ortiz is too good of a trainer to stay in a funk and this horse has shown enough ability in her first two races to suggest the equipment change could have the desired effect.