Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs
Track: Tampa Bay Downs
Race 8: $32K optional claimer going 7 furlongs on dirt for 3YO
Post Time: 3:50 PM ET
Horse: #3 Skyloft (12/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 7/1 or higher.
Our Longshot of the Day at Turfway Park (Bigonzetti) on Wednesday won but sadly got bet all the way down from 6/1 to 5/2 to pay $7.82. A win is a win, but let’s try to get some more value today. Tampa Bay has a nice little optional claimer today for three-year-olds that piqued my interest. You have a few horses coming out of maiden claiming victories and others stepping up from the claiming ranks scattered throughout the field, but Skyloft caught my eye as a horse that really moved forward in his last start and could continue to move forward today. The gelded son of Sky Mesa broke his maiden last time out against $25K maiden claimers going six furlongs in a race where jockey Jesus Castanon got him to the lead, and they never looked back. It was promising to see that he extended his lead late in the race to suggest today’s extra furlong should not be an issue. He has the sort of muddied running lines I like to see in longshots where he started his career on the turf before a poor dirt effort where he had trouble at the start and then two more middling turf route efforts before breaking his maiden sprinting on the dirt. He earned a 59 Beyer Speed Figure in that last race, which was a massive jump from his previous two starts, but he earned a 63 BSF in debut, so it is not as if that figure came out of nowhere. Trainer Mike Dini is winning 14% of starts from last out maiden winners over the last five years and that number skyrockets to 22% when controlling for dirt sprints with a $3.21 ROI. I also like the consistency of keeping Castanon on the mount. Two other horses I considered writing about, #8 My Lucky Angel (8/1) and #10 Its Pizza Time (6/1), are both losing their jockeys that rode them to last out maiden victories. Now, both of those horses are very solid contenders in this field, but I have a feeling they will both get bet down well below their morning line price due to a couple of scratches in the race. Meanwhile, Skyloft should keep his value and offer players an honest price on a horse that might have just figured out what he wants to do and is second time with Lasix.