Longshot of the Day: Race 8 at Mahoning Valley

Track: Mahoning Valley

Race 8: $25,900 allowance going 1 mile on dirt for 3+

Post Time: 3:31 PM ET

Horse: #8 Award Nominated (8/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.

Well, conditions are rated as “muddy” at Mahoning Valley today, which means it’s a day that ends in “y” and that they might have pulled ahead of Oaklawn Park in their annual duel to see who can run over the most wet tracks during a meet. Nevertheless, we head there for today’s longshot in the final race. We often talk about horses taking a class drop, but what about those stepping up in class? They can often provide value as it might appear they are outgunned by the competition, which brings me to Award Nominated. The seven-year-old son of Buffum is stepping up today to allowance company after beating $12,500 claiming competition last time out at Charles Town. So, why do I think he is worth a shot? Let’s start with trainer Anthony Farrior who got this horse last June and didn’t race him until a couple weeks ago. Farrior is an astounding 41% at Mahoning Valley this year. You do not get those numbers by not knowing how to place your horses in spots where they will be successful. Additionally, over the last five years, he has been winning at a 29% clip when moving horses from claiming to allowance races at Mahoning Valley. It is telling that Farrior put the horse in for a tag last time out, but now steps him up to protect him, which shows me that he likes the horse and thinks he has some good races left in him. He is also using his top jockey Erik Barbaran who has won 31% of his mount this meet and wins at a 34% rate when he teams up with Farrior over the last year at Mahoning Valley. Regarding the horse, he is second back from a seven-month layoff and showed some real courage to get up for a dead-heat victory last time out. He should continue to move forward from his 57 Beyer Speed Figure from that effort and has shown the ability to run in the 70s before and even broke his maiden with an 80 Beyer Speed Figure over a wet track. He is more of a plodder but expect him to make his way over toward the rail going into the first turn and then show some acceleration late in the race. His kick last time out was better than we had seen from him in well over a year, so it is promising that Farrior might have unlocked something with this runner. The combination of a hot trainer and a horse second back from a layoff makes for an appealing recipe for a longshot of the day.