Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Oaklawn Park

Track: Oaklawn Park

Race 7: $110K MSW going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+ Arkansas-bred fillies and mares

Post Time: 4:32 PM ET

Horse: #2 Beachya (6/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 9/2 or higher.

The Arky-bred races at Oaklawn Park are some of my favorite to play and while my top selection will be a good price, I’ll also give another longer shot to consider at the bottom. However, for my top pick in this race I like Beachya who presents decent value as a horse exiting a debut race that can move forward in her second start. Part of the reason I like her is that I’m a little concerned with morning line favorite #9 Miss Macy (5/2) for trainer John Ortiz. I have a lot of respect for Ortiz, but currently he is 2-48 during the Oaklawn Park meet and over the last five years he is only 2-28 (7%) with horses making their second start in MSW races at Oaklawn. Additionally, second choice #12 She’s a Dreamer (9/2) is going to break on the far outside and could lose ground as young horses tend to break toward open space at the start of races. Meanwhile, Beachya is getting a critical equipment chance for maidens as she is getting blinkers added for a horse that struggled with early speed in debut. The good part was that she sustained her run and passed several horses to finish fourth in a field of 12. Now the daughter of Omaha Beach gets Lasix for the first time and should show better speed from the gate with the addition of blinkers. I love the pedigree as well as Omaha Beach has done a great job producing winning dirt sprinters (21% vs. the all-sire average of 13%). Additionally, her dam (Madrilena) has had several dirt sprint winning foals that have won at a 20% clip (13-64). I expect trainer Randy Morse to have her really move forward in her second start.

Now, if you’re looking for a slightly bigger price, #4 Very Cosmopolitan (8/1), presents good value for trainer Ron Moquett who has this daughter of Complexity running second time back from a brief freshening. The horse is getting Lasix for the first time, which has traditionally be a positive move for Moquett as his horses are winning at a 22% clip over the last year under those conditions. She has shown the ability to pass horses, and I like that she picks up jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. who typically has the instinct to be aggressive out of the gate. The horse has shown the ability to pass horses but needs to be put a little more forward than usual. Additionally, her mare (T’as d’Beaux Yeux) has produced a lot of winners, but they typically take some time to develop, so going into her fourth start, she could continue to see progression against a gettable group.