Longshot of the Day: Race 7 at Oaklawn Park

Track: Oaklawn Park

Race 7: $20K starter allowance going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+

Post Time: 4:18 PM ET

Horse: # (6/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.

Oaklawn Park can be a challenging meet in the early weeks because so many different horses are converging after running their previous races in so many different circuits. However, one angle I typically rely upon is using horses coming out of major circuits that are coming to Oaklawn Park for the winter, which led me to Lunar Module. The son of Conveyance is second off the claim for trainer Jordan Blair and showed good improvement losing by a neck against $25,000 claiming competition at Churchill Downs last time out. He has largely been running against solid competition at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, and Fair Grounds, which bodes well for facing this group at Oaklawn Park. The horse has several races to run back to that will be good enough on Sunday as either of his two starter allowance races from this spring are fast enough in addition to his race last time out. Blair is a good trainer and over the last five years he has been winning 30% of his starts where his runners are second off the claim. As for the race, the horse has good early speed but can come from off the pace and pass horses, which should allow jockey Martin Chuan to sit a comfortable trip tracking the early speed. Additionally, he is an honest horse who has hit the board in 11 of his 18 career starts and some of the recent poor performances have easy excuses. He was worked up prior to the start two back, was trying the turf three back, and was on the lead over a sloppy track four back. None of those three starts seem to be particularly emblematic of the type of horse he is otherwise. At 6/1 he presents modest value and is a worthy alternative to the favorite #5 Hi Yah (2/1) who appears to have run two very fast races in September and October that might be anomalous with the rest of his form.