Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Aqueduct

Track: Aqueduct

Race 5: $45K optional claimer going 1 mile on dirt for 3+ NY-breds

Post Time: 1:37 PM ET

Horse: #5 Shadow Dragon (6/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 5/1 or higher.

When you see a horse that is 2-16 winner but 11-16 hitting the board, you often want to stay away from that one for a win bet and focus on keying them underneath, but I think Shadow Dragon has a chance to surprise at a modest price on Saturday. The Bill Mott trainee was a familiar name last year on the Kentucky Derby trail when he finished second to Forte in the Holy Bull (G3) before he was overmatched in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2). He has been running exclusively against NY-breds ever since and has been collecting minor awards for much of the last year. However, Mott is making a critical equipment change by adding blinkers, which will serve two purposes. First, it should help get the son of Army Mule out of the gate a little quicker, which will serve him well in this spot as there is minimal speed signed on and he could sit a comfortable tracking trip for jockey Eric Cancel. Second, the blinkers should improve his focus when coming for home, which is an added advantage for a horse that has suffered several close defeats. He does not need to get much faster from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint to win and over the last five years, Mott is winning at a 20% clip when adding blinkers for the first time to 4YO+ runners on the dirt. Certainly, a horse like the #6 Mighty Atlas (5/2) looks tough in this spot and perhaps Shadow Dragon is destined to run a close second, yet again, but at 6/1 on the morning line with the equipment change, he feels like a useful horse to use in both your vertical and horizontal wagers.