Longshot of the Day: Race 5 at Turfway Park

Track: Turfway Park

Race 5: $80K MSW going 6 furlongs on synthetic for 2YO fillies

Post Time: 7:55 PM ET

Horse: #1 M’Lady Sansa (12/1 morning line). Use as a win bet at 8/1 or higher.

I do not typically like using debut runners breaking from the inside rail, however, there are exceptions to every rule, and I think M’Lady Sansa provides significant value. Let’s start with her pedigree. She is sired by Spun to Run who is a first-crop sire who has had minimal debut success. However, a deeper look in the numbers shows that while his offspring only win 5% of the time in their first start, they hit the board at a 40% rate. I think it is promising to see that his progeny run well in debut even if they do not always win. Additionally, Spun to Run is sired by Hard Spun who is an outstanding synthetic sire, so you would imagine that influence could be passed down to his son. Meanwhile, M’Lady Sansa has outstanding dam side pedigree for first out success as her dam (Boreale) was a three-time winner over a synthetic surface in Europe and has also produced a first-out winner (Lady Beth) over synthetic. Shifting from pedigree, M’Lady Sansa has worked out well leading up to her debut for trainer Richard Estvanko. I love that she has been working exclusively at Turfway Park to get accustomed to the surface and she has had a series of strong works from the gate including a 47.1 second four-furlong work back on November 5 and another 48.3 second four-furlong gate work just last week. Both of those works provide confidence the horse has speed out of the gate and will be able to escape the rail. It is possible this one will want to go longer in the future, but Estvanko has shown the ability to get horses ready for debut and I think this one is worth a shot at a price. In terms of other horses, certainly the Brad Cox filly #7 Cosmic Wonder (3/1) will take a ton of money, but my concern with that one is the dam has never produced a winner as her two raced foals are a combined 0-10 and the recent works have been slow by Cox trainee standards. Typically, I’d look toward a Brendan Walsh-trained horse like #11 Ashwaag (8/1) for Shadwell Stables as the horse has nice pedigree and a solid series of works, but over the last five years Walsh is only 1-17 with debut runners at Turfway Park in maiden special weight races. All these factors push me toward the inside and a horse that might be overlooked due to her lesser-known connections.