Longshot of the Day: Race 6 at Parx

Track: Parx Racecourse

Race 6: $50K MSW going 6 furlongs on dirt for 3+ fillies & mares

Post Time: 2:20 PM ET

Horse: #2 Butter Kisses (6/1) use as a win by at 4/1 or higher

Some early week action at Parx is always fun and Race 6 is an evenly matched maiden race, so it will be interesting to see where the betting public goes as five of the seven runners are 6/1 or less on the morning line. I will put my money behind Butter Kisses who is one of those 6/1 runners but could take some money. She holds the distinction of being the only horse to have won a race as she crossed the wire first against $25,000 maiden claiming company at Parx on September 8 but was later disqualified from purse money. The interesting aspect was that due to her winning, she was able to face winners in her three subsequent races, and she ran very well as she finished in the money in all three starts against $25,000 optional claiming competition. Last time out, while she was defeated by 11+ lengths, she also bested seven other runners while finishing second to a runaway winner. Today she drops back against the maiden ranks, and I am going to make a sport analogy that I hope illustrates my point. I’m an alumnus of Furman University, which is a small liberal arts school in Greenville, SC and only has a student population of 2,600 despite being a Division I program in athletics. Most years, Furman’s men’s basketball team faces a bunch of tough non-conference foes during the early part of the season, and they take their licks against the likes of Clemson, Auburn, Duke, and others. Then, around January, they switch over to face their in-conference Southern Conference opponents and suddenly they start beating the likes of Samford, Wofford, and UNC-Greensboro. The logic is that they face top-level competition early in the season to toughen themselves up for the conference and after facing Duke, Clemson, and Auburn, suddenly Wofford, Samford, and UNC-Greensboro don’t seem so intimidating. Getting back to horse racing, I use the same logic when I see a maiden run against winners and then dropping back down against the maiden ranks. If you’re able to hang with winners, and beat many of them, that bodes well for your chances of handling maidens when you face them again. While it is not a foolproof strategy, the fact Butter Kisses did so well against winners gives me reason to believe she can run well today at an honest price give her 60 Beyer Speed Figure (BSF) last time out.